2025–27 年经济展望：十大焦点问题深度解析.pptxVIP

EconomicOutlook2025-27:

10Top-of-Mind

Questions,Answered

2October2025

Content

5

ExecutiveSummary

7

Whotrulybearsthecostoftheongoingtradewar?

12

Hasstagflationtransitionedfromaloomingrisktoan

14

Cancentralbanksuntangletheircomplexdilemmas?

Page15

IstheUSD’sdominancefacinganeweraofuncertainty?

17

Howfarcanfiscaldominancepropellong-terminterest

19

WilltheEUfinallyrampupdefensespendingin2026-27?

23

Howarefirmsnavigatingthechallengeofpersistentlyhigh

27

Isacapitalmarketbubbleonthehorizon?

Page28

Whichemergingmarketsaregrapplingwithrisingimbalances?

Page30

Whatpoliticaleventscouldsteerustowardadownsidescenario?

undeniablereality?

financingcosts?

rates?

AllianzResearch

2

1.Whotrulybearsthecostoftheongoingtradewar?Primarilyexportersfornow,butUSconsumerswillalsobehitthroughhigherinflation(upby0.6pp

bymid-2026).Whileglobaltraderouteshaveshifted,allowingexportersto

mitigatetheimpact,downsiderisksremainhighassectorialinvestigations

areongoingandthetradedealwithChinaisstillpending.Exportlossescouldintheoryrangefrom-0.3%ofGDP(EU)to-1.3%ofGDP(Vietnam)comparedtoapre-tradewarscenario.ThecostfortheUSisestimatedat-0.3%.FDI

pledgesintheUS,ifrealized,wouldamountto6%ofUSGDPby2026-2028,andlookverycostlyforsourcecountries.Overall,growthinglobaltradeofgoodsandservicesisexpectedtoslowdownto+0.6%in2026from+2%in2025involumeterms.

2.Hasstagflationtransitionedfromaloomingrisktoanundeniable

reality?Yes,butitisstagflationlightfornow.Inflationremainsabovetargetinmanyadvancedeconomies–suchastheUK,USandJapan–whilegrowthstayslackluster.Thiscombinationmarksamildstagflationaryphaseby

historicstandards.Formosteconomies,weexpectinflationtogradually

returntowardthe2%targetby2027.Whilethe