基于云模型的极端雨洪灾害预警研究--以景德镇为例.docVIP

  基于云模型的极端雨洪灾害预警研究—— 以景德镇为例# 王贺1,3，刘高峰2,3，王慧敏1,3** 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 （1. 河海大学商学院，南京 211100； 2. 河海大学企业管理学院，常州 213002； 3. 河海大学水文水资源与水利工程国家重点实验室，南京 210098） 摘要：城市极端雨洪灾害预警是一个涉及自然、社会、经济等多因素的动态变化的复杂系 统。为了分析不同时间、不同下垫面对雨洪灾害的影响程度，为有关部门提供及时、准确 的雨洪灾害预警结果，利用两维图论聚类法将城市分为若干个相对独立的区域，根据各个 独立区域的实际情况分别创建 4 个相应降水等级的正态云和统一的极端雨洪灾害风险等 级，建立基于云模型的城市极端雨洪灾害预警模型，对相同降雨降到不同地方和不同时间 段降雨降到相同地方所引起的雨洪灾害进行动态预警。结果表明，极端暴雨降临时，城西 片区、浮梁县城片区和城东片区遭受的灾害风险等级较高，随着时间的推移，其等级逐步 由三级升到四级，而电厂片区和吕蒙航空基地片区遭受的灾害风险等级相对较低，最高不 超过三级。利用云模型可以对景德镇各个区域各个时间段的灾害等级进行及时、准确的动 态预警。 关键词：云模型；城市极端雨洪；灾害预警 中图分类号：X43 Warning on Urban Extreme Rainstorms Flood disaster based on Cloud Model WANG He1,3, LIU Gaofeng2,3, WANG Huimin1,3 (1. Business School,Hohai University,Nanjing 211100; 2. College of Business Administration,Hohai University,Changzhou 213002; 3. State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098) Abstract: Urban Extreme rainfall flood disaster warning is a complex system which is a matter of dynamic changes in natural, social, economic and other factors. In order to analyze the rainwater disasters’ influence of different underlying surface in the different time, provide rainwater disaster warning results timely and accurate for the relevant departments, we should do some dynamic warning about the rain down in different places on the same period of time and in the same places on the different period of time. We divide the city into a number of relatively independent areas through Two-dimensional graph theory clustering method, gather the date that losses accounted for more than 0.5% of citys GDP caused by extreme storms, establish four corresponding levels of normal cloud according to the actual situation of each individual region and a unified extreme rainfall flood disaster risk level. The result shows that when extreme storm comes, some regions suffer from a higher level risk of loss such as the west and east of the city, Fu-Liang areas, its level rose from Ⅲ