气候变化下宁夏引黄灌区玉米产量及其构成因素的预估.pdfVIP

AgriculturalScience＆Technology，2011，12(5)：699—701，736 Copyright⑥0211，InformationInstituteofHAAS．Allrightsreserved AgronomyandForestry PredictionofMaizeYieldand ItsComponent Factors inYellow RiverIrrigationAreaof NingxiaunderClimateChange LIU Yu．1an ，REN Yu’ WANG Ying-chun ，GUO Xiao-lei’ ， 1．NingxiaMeteorologicalServiceCenter，Yinchuan750002；2NingxiaMeteorologicalAdministration，Yinchuan750002 Abstract 0『bjective]TheaimwastoquantitativelypredictthevariationtrendofmaizeyieldinYellowRiverirrigationareaofNingxiaunderfu- tureclimatechangescenarios． 『Method]Basedonthedataofdailytemperature．precipitationandradiationjn25km ×25km gridinNingxia from 2010to2100obtainedbyregionalclimatemodeI．maizeyield inYellow Riverirrigationarea of,Ningxiainthe21 centurywasstudiedby meansofcorrectedCERES-Maizemode1． R『esult]Withclimatewarming．maizeyieldinYellow RiverirrigationareaofNingxiain202Osand 2050sshowedincreasetrendcomparedwithbaseyears(averagein1961—1990)whencurrentadaptivemaizevarietyandoptimumproduction managementmeasureswereadopted．whilemaizeyieldwentdown in2080swiththefu~herincreaseoftemperature．Thegrainnumberper spikeandspikegrainweightastheyieldcomponentsofmaizealsoshowedthesametrendwithmaizeyield．In2020sand2050s．thejncrease ofmaizeyieldunderB2scenariowashigherthanthatunderA2scenario．whilethedecreaseofmaizeyieldunderB2scenariowasIowerthan thatunderA2．scenarioin2080s． C『onclusion]Wllhtheincreaseoftemperature，maizeyieldinYellow RiverirrigationareaofNingxiawentup firstlyandthenwentdown． Keywords Yellow RiverirrigationareaofNingxia；Climatechange；Maize C “matechangeisrelatedtohumanexistenceanddevel- studies． 1n recentyears．studies on the effects ofclimate opmentinfutureandhasarousedthea~entionofmanygov— changeonmaizehavebeendeepenedanddevelopedwiththe ernmentsandacademiccirclesalIovertheworld．Agricultural furtherresearch o