美国孤独症患儿比例达到150：数字的背后.pdfVIP

美国孤独症患儿比例达到1/50：数字的背后 The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has released new figures for autism prevalence in the United States. They now give a prevalence of 1 in 50, but this story, like most autism-related stories, goes deeper than the numbers. 美国疾病和控制中心（CDC ）发布了美国孤独症患病率的最新数字。如今，他们给出的数字是1/50 ，但与大多 数与孤独症有关的文章一样，本文没有停留在这些数字之上，而是进行了更深的挖掘。 First, this prevalence estimate doesn’t focus only on 8-year-olds, the population used for deriving the 1 in 88 number reported in 2012. Instead, it encompasses the number of diagnosed autistic people walking around in 2011 and 2012 who were ages 6 to 17. The 2007 percentage of the population fitting that description was 1.16%. These new numbers put that value for 2011 -2012 at 2%. 首先，此次患病率估算不仅仅针对八岁儿童，2012 年时 CDC 就曾取样该年龄段儿童并得出了 1/88 的结果。而 此次研究包括了 2011 至 2012 年间 6 至 17 岁的孤独症确诊人数。2007 年，符合该描述的确诊病例占人口比例 为 1.16%。新数据显示，2011 至 2012 年的这一数值达到了 2%。 From the CDC’s report [ PDF]: 摘自 CDC 的报告： The magnitude of the increase was greatest for boys and for adolescents aged 14–17. Cohort analyses revealed consistent estimates of both the prevalence of parent-reported ASD (autism spectrum disorder) and autism severity ratings over time. Children who were first diagnosed in or after 2008 accounted for much of the observed prevalence increase among school-aged children (those aged 6– 17). School-aged children diagnosed in or after 2008 were more likely to have milder ASD and less likely to have severe ASD than those diagnosed in or before 2007. 患病率增幅最大的群体是男孩和 14 到 17 岁的青少年。队列分析显示，父母报告的孤独症谱系障碍（ASD ）患 病率和自闭症严重程度数据两者相互吻合。2008 年或以后首次确诊的患儿数增长占所观测到的 6 到 17 岁学龄 儿童患病率增长的很大一部分。相较于 2007 年或以前确诊的病例，2008 年或以后确诊的学龄儿童患有轻度 ASD 的可能性更大，而患有重度 ASD 的可能性更小。 According to the CDC, hidden within these numbers is the finding that most of t he increase from 2007 to now occurred in school-aged children. In other words, given that it’s possible to diagnose autism as early as age 18 months and usually by age 5, many of these new autism d