驾驶技能与追尾事故关系的仿真研究.pdfVIP

第15卷第2 期 交通运输系统工程与信息 Vol. 15 No.2 2015 年4 月 Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology April 2015 文章编号：1009-6744（2015）02-0096-06 中图分类号：U495 文献标志码：A 驾驶技能与追尾事故关系的仿真研究 李 庚，贾 宁，马寿峰* （天津大学 管理与经济学部，天津300072） 摘 要： 驾驶员驾驶水平与追尾事故发生有着密切的关系.本文以交通流仿真模型中 的优化速度模型为基础，考虑驾驶员的反应时间与操作失误率两方面因素，建立了一种 追尾事故的微观仿真模型.随后针对由两台车辆组成的场景，通过仿真实验研究了车速、 车距及驾驶技能对追尾事故发生率的影响.仿真结果表明，依据车速保持合理距离是防止 事故发生最有效的手段，而反应延迟与操作失误率对事故发生都有影响，并具有不同的 影响程度与影响形式，同时给出了对驾驶员驾驶水平要求的一些建议.本文结果对于人因 交通事故机理研究及人因交通事故的预防有一定参考价值. 关键词： 城市交通；优化速度模型；追尾事故；安全车距；反应延迟；操作失误 Simulation Research on the Relationship between Driving Skills and Rear-end Accidents LI Geng, JIA Ning, MA Shou-feng （College of Management and Economics, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China） Abstract:Abstract: Drivers skill associates highly with the occurrences of traffic rear-end accidents. In this paper, a microscopic simulation model is developed for rear- end collision simulation by adding reaction delay and operational error into the classic “optimal velocity model”. Then a scenario consists of two cars is researched through the simulation model to investigate the impact of the velocity, distance and drivers skills upon the rear-end accident rate. Simulation results indicate that keeping safe distance is the most effective measures in prevention of crashes; while both response delay and operation error rate also pose obviously effects on the accident rate, but with different strengths and forms. These results are valuable for the studies on the mechanism and prevention of human-caused traffic accidents.