Modeling the rice phenology and production in China with SIMRIW： sensitivity analysis and parameter estimation.pdfVIP

Front．EarthSci．2014，8(4)：505—511 D0I10．1007／sl1707．014—0468．1 ModelingthericephenologyandproductioninChinawith SIMRIW ：sensitivityanalysisandparameterestimation ShuaiZHANG ，FuluTAO (函)，RunheSHI 1KeyLaboratoryofLandSurfacePaRernandSimulation，InstituteofGeographicalSciencesandNaturalResourcesResearch，ChineseAcademyof Sciences，Beijing100101，China 2KeyLaboratory ofGeographicInformationScience，EastChinaNomr alUniversity,Shanghai200062，China ◎ HigherEducationPressandSpringer-VerlagBerlinHeidelberg2014 Abstract Cropmodelsarerobusttoolsforsimulatingthe whichhasraised considerableconcern among scientists impactof climate change on rice developmentand (Kropffeta1．，l993；Horieeta1．，1997；Matthewseta1．． production，butareusuallydesignedofrspecificstations 1997；HayashiandJung。2000；Xiongeta1．，200l：Linet and varieties．This study focuseson amoreadaptable a1．，2005)，isrfequentlyinvestigatedandpredictedbycrop modelcalled Simulation ModelofrRice．．W eatherRela．． models．Sincetheirinrtoductioninthe1960s(Brouwerand tions(SIMRIW)．Themodelwascalibratedandvalidated DeWit’1969；Duncan，1971)，cropmodelshavebenefitted inmajorriceproductionregionsoverChina，andthe from advancesin agriculturalscience and computer parametersthatmostaffect the model’s outputwere technology．The Simulation M odelofr Rice—Weather determined in sensitivityanalyses．Thesesensitivepara— RelationsfSIMRIW1isasimplifiedprocessmodelthat meterswereestimatedindifferentecologicalzones．The simulatesthe growth andyield ofirrigated riceunder simulated results of single and double rice cropping differentweatherconditions．Themodelrationally sim． systemsindifferentecologicalzoneswerehtencompared． plifiestheunderlyingphysiologicalandphysicalprocesses TheaccuracyOfSIMRIW wasfoundtodependonafew ofricecropgrowth．nadhasbeenusedtoassesshteimpact crucialpraameters．Usingoptimizedparameters．SIMRIW