Prey Selection by an Apex Predator The Importance of Sampling Uncertainty 英文参考文献.docVIP

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Prey Selection by an Apex Predator The Importance of Sampling Uncertainty 英文参考文献.doc

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Prey Selection by an Apex Predator The Importance of Sampling Uncertainty 英文参考文献

PreySelectionbyanApexPredator:TheImportanceof SamplingUncertainty MirandaL.Davis1*,PhilipA.Stephens1,StephenG.Willis1,ElenaBassi2,AndreaMarcon2, EmanuelaDonaggio2,ClaudiaCapitani2,MarcoApollonio2 1SchoolofBiologicalandBiomedicalSciences,UniversityofDurham,Durham,CountyDurham,UnitedKingdom,2DepartmentofNaturalandEnvironmentalSciences, UniversityofSassari,Sassari,Sardinia,Italy Abstract Theimpactofpredationonpreypopulationshaslongbeenafocusofecologists,butafirmunderstandingofthefactors influencing prey selection, a key predictor of that impact, remains elusive. High levels of variability observed in prey selection may reflect true differences in the ecology of different communities but might also reflect a failure to deal adequatelywithuncertaintiesintheunderlyingdata.Indeed,ourreviewshowedthatlessthan10%ofstudiesofEuropean wolfpredationaccountedforsamplinguncertainty.Here,werelateannualvariabilityinwolfdiettopreyavailabilityand examine temporal patterns in prey selection; in particular, we identify how considering uncertainty alters conclusions regardingpreyselection.Overnineyears,wecollected1,974wolfscatsandconducteddrivecensusesofungulatesinAlpe diCatenaia,Italy.Webootstrappedscatandcensusdatawithinyearstoconstructconfidenceintervalsaroundestimatesof prey use,availability andselection. Wolfdietwas dominatedby boar (61.563.90[SE] % ofbiomass eaten) androe deer (33.763.61%).Temporalpatternsofpreydensitiesrevealedthattheproportionofroedeerinwolfdietpeakedwhenboar densities were low, not when roe deer densities were highest. Considering only the two dominant prey types, Manly’s standardized selection index using all data across years indicated selection for boar (mean=0.7360.023). However, samplingerrorresultedinwideconfidenceintervalsaroundestimatesofpreyselection.Thus,despiteconsiderablevariation inyearlyestimates,confidenceintervalsforallyearsoverlapped.Failingtoconsidersuchuncertaintycouldleaderroneously to the assumption of differences in prey selection among y