基于进化博弈模型的科技保险险种创新行为研究.pdfVIP

12 年11 月·第 26 卷·第 11 期(总第 155 期) 赵堤，谢科范 (武汉理工大学管理学院，武汉 43ω70) 摘要:采用以有限理性假设为前提的进化博弈理论作为分析工具，构建了科技保险险种创新进化博弈筷型，进而对双 方主体策略的进化稳定性进行了分析，并以 C 保险公司为例，通过构建系统动力学模型，运用虚拟数据进行了模拟计 算。然后，基于对险种包~新主体行为的分析，对险种创新促进策略进行了探讨。研究结果表明:保险公司选择开发新 险种策略的基础是新险种所带来的超额收益;政府于预险种创新的基础是我国科技保险市场具有活力，且干预行为 具有良好的社会效应;在博弈过程中，只要有一方主动选择积极策略，则另一方也会逐步向飘极的方向发展。 关键词:科技保险;险种创新;进化博弈;系统动力学 中图分类号:阳40.32 文献标识码:A 文章编号:1∞1-8409(2012)11-∞53 -05 Research on Behavlor of Innova筒。n of Sclence and Technology Insurance Based on Evolu创。nary Game ZHAO Shi , XIE Ke-fan (Sc归。1 (扩 Managemen.t， WI础ω1 University 01 Technology , Wuhan 4页阳的 Abstract: 四is paper adopts the evolutionary game theory , which 臼 on the 幽皿抖侃 of bounded rationaJity , as analysis tool and structures the evolutionary game model of products innovation of science technol锦F MHmmm， tkma皿ly酷S 也e ev- olutionary stahle strategi臼 of both subjects. Through structuring sys阳:m dynamics model , the ca蝇。rωn侧rance C创吨lIlDY 臼 analog computed using virtual data. Finally , on the basi8 ofanalyzìng the 8U均配钮. hehavior of 凶皿llIDCe萨od皿ts izEmva- tion , this paper discus喝自由e promoting strategy of insurance products innovation. R四ult øhows 也al:fir琪， the hm d h- surance companyadopting the strategy of insurance products innovation is the exce田 eamings gene ,ated by new insurance products. Second , the basis of govemmentpromoting insurance products innovation is 也剧也e science and technol句EY MHE- ance market is active , and the promotions have a g∞d society henefit. Thinl , in the 伊耻proc锢，曲loog 翩翩田地ject a- dopts positive strategy , the other one will also move in a positive directionstep by step. Key words: science and technology insurance; insurance p