基于复杂网络理论和条件概率的灾难性事故风险评估方法.pdfVIP

37 卷 11 期 电 网 技 术 Vol. 37 No. 11 20 13 年11 月 Power System Technology Nov. 2013 文章编号：1000-3673 （2013 ）11-3190-07 中图分类号：TM 721 文献标志码：A 学科代码：470 4051 基于复杂网络理论和条件概率的 灾难性事故风险评估方法 赵阳，李华强，王伊渺，刘沛清 （四川大学电气信息学院，四川省 成都市 610065 ） A Complex Network Theory and Conditional Probability Based Risk Assessment Method for Disastrous Accidents ZHAO Yang, LI Huaqiang, WANG Yimiao, LIU Peiqing (School of Electrical Engineering and Information, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610065, Sichuan Province, China) ABSTRACT: Applying complex network theory and risk 性事故 theory and synthetically considering operation conditions of 0 引言 power grid and its topological structure, a method based on conditional probability risk indicators of Bayesian network to 随着电力系统规模的不断扩大和网架结构的 assess disastrous accident occurred in power grid is proposed. 日益复杂，电网运行安全问题成为关注的焦点。复 The concept of electrical betweenness is led in the proposed 杂的电力网络在输送电能的同时，对电网的局部故 method to resolve the deficiency in traditional risk assessment [1] 障也起着传播作用 。近年来电力系统频发的事故 that in the severity of fault only operational conditions of power grid are considered and topological structure of power 表明，单一元件故障可能会沿着电网迅速传播而引 grid is not considered. Applying conditional probability the 发一系列的连锁反应，最终导致系统解列，引发灾 defect in traditional risk assessment that the fault probabilities [2-4] 难性事故 。在这个过程中，系统拓扑结构起着关 of elements are