基于动态聚类分析水环境健康风险综合评价.docVIP

基于动态聚类分析水环境健康风险综合评价 　　摘要:考虑各水期的浓度差异,提出浓度参数综合评判的概念,建立了基于浓度参数综合评判的水环境健康风险评价模型.运用动态聚类分析法将评价结果进行归类,得出风险管理的优先控制等级.将该方法应用于2007年湘江18个断面的健康风险评价研究中.结果表明:各监测断面中砷、六价铬和镉三种物质的健康危害较大,其中砷的健康危害最大;采用动态聚类分析将风险评价结果归为四类:高风险、高-中风险、中风险和低风险.其中松柏下断面健康风险最高,达到3.79E-04,属于高风险级别,应进行优先控制;黄茶岭属于高-中风险;归阳镇、熬洲、朱亭镇、枫溪、白石、霞湾、马家河、五星、易家湾、樟树港断面为中风险;另外6个断面为低风险.根据综合评判,大部分断面水质已受到不同程度的污染,必须加强湘江水环境污染的控制. 　　关键词:不确定性;健康风险评价;动态聚类分析;综合评判 　　中图分类号:X820.4 文献标识码:A 　　 　　Integrated Assessment of Environmental Health Risks of Water Sources Based on Dynamic Cluster Analysis 　　ZHU Hui-na 1,2, YUAN Xing-zhong1,2+, ZENG Guang-ming 1,2, LIANG Jie 1,2, JIANG Hong-wei 1,2, FAN Meng-jia 1,2,XIANG Qiu-lai 1,2 　　(1.College of Environmental Science and Engineering, Hunan University, Changsha 410082, P.R. China; 2.Key Laboratory of Environmental Biology and Pollution Control (Hunan University), Ministry of Education, Changsha 410082, P.R. China) 　　 　　Abstract: An integrated assessment model for the concentration parameter was proposed,Because of the concentration parameter is different in defferent period of the river.The environmental health risk assessment model was developed based on the integrated assessment model.Dynamic cluster analysis was used to obtain the priority of the risk management.The model wased used to assessment the health risk for 18 sections of Xiangjiang River in 2007.The result showed that the health risk from As,Cd and Cr6+ were very high,and As most of all.Using the dynamic cluster analysis, the health risk was devided into four categories of “high”,”medium-high”,”medium”and”low”.The health risk of the Songboxia section is the most high,which was belongde to the “high”level,and need to be prority processing.The heslth risk of the Huangtuling section was belonged to the “high-medium” level.The Guiyangzhen,Aozhou,Zhutingzhen,Fengxi,Baishi,Xiawan,Majiahe,Wuxing,Yijiawan and Zhangshugang sections were belonged to the “medium” level.And the other six sections were belonged to “low” level.With the refere