中央银行干预对人民币均衡汇率的影响研究：1994-2013-research on the impact of central bank intervention on rmb equilibrium exchange rate 1994 - 2013.docxVIP

万方数据 万方数据 Research on the Effects of Central Bank Intervention to RMB Equilibrium Exchange Rate: 1994-2013 Abstract Exchange rate as the macroeconomic variables in our economic life, is becoming increasingly important in the integration process of the global economy and financial. Since the late of 1980s international monetary and financial crisis are frequent occurrence, its impact on economic show the importance of the exchange rate system and exchange rate policies. China as the economy steady development country, the development of the RMB exchange rate trend has been the object get a lot of attention. Currently, the major Western countries questioned the RMB exchange rate was seriously undervalue, questions about whether appreciate the RMB exchange rate has become the most pressing issues for China in the global economic and financial activities. The correct solution of the RMB exchange rate issue has also become a priority. The international community remains questioned the RMB exchange rate policy, although PBOC made it clear that the purpose of the exchange rate policy is to keep the RMB exchange rate basically stable at an adaptive and equilibrium level. In this regard, this paper based on the market context of RMB exchange rate formation mechanism, from the heterogeneity of the foreign exchange market traders microscopic hypotheses, theoretical Study the existed affect of the exchange rate misalignment degree at central bank intervention. This paper selects the 1994-2013 monthly datas as the research sample, introduction the theory of the RMB exchange rate determination, find the suitable theoretical to build RMB equilibrium exchange rate regression models, estimates the RMB exchange rate misalignment based on the regression result and H-P filtering method. Then measure the coefficient of central bank intervention in accordance with the relevant formulas. Establish the appropriate smooth transition autoregressiv