县域金融发展和经济增长关系研究.docVIP

县域金融发展和经济增长关系研究 　　摘 要：以福建省清流县2008年第1季度至2014年第4季度28个季度数据为样本，运用VAR模型对我国县域金融发展与经济增长的关系进行实证研究的结果表明，总体上县域金融发展与经济增长处于波动上升态势，但脉冲响应与方差分解显示二者内生发展动力不足，表现为“短期负效应、中期正效应、长期效应为零”的特征，相互促进作用较弱。因此，应积极推进金融供给侧改革，提升金融对县域实体经济的服务能力，进而构建县域金融发展与经济增长互促演进的长效机制。 　　关 键 词：县域金融；经济增长；脉冲响应；方差分解 　　中图分类号：F832.0 文献标识码：A 文章编号：1006-3544（2016）03-0003-08 　　Research on the Relationship between Financial Development at County Level and Economic Growth 　　――Based on the Empirical Analysis of Qingliu County， Fujian Province 　　Zhou Huimin1， Yu Ping2 　　（1.Renmin University of China， Beijing 100872， China； 　　2. Southwestern University of Finance and Economics，Chengdu 611130， China） 　　Abstract： The paper based its research on the data of 28 quarters from the 1st quarter in 2008 to the 4th one in 2014 of Qingliu County， Fujian Province and conducted empirical analysis on the relationship between China’s financial development at county level and economic growth by utilizing VAR model. The results of the analysis indicate that financial development at county level and economic growth display a fluctuating increasing tendency， whereas， the impulse response and variance decomposition indicate that there is a lack of internal development driving force. This could be explained as “short-term negative effect， medium-term positive effect， and long-term zero effect”. The interactive effect of financial development and economic growth is rather weak. Therefore， we should actively promote the reform of financial supply front and improve financial service to real economy at county level so as to set up a long-term mechanism of interaction between financial development at county level and economic growth. 　　Key words： county financial； economic growth； impulse response； variance decomposition 　　一、引言 　　党的十八届五中全会明确提出， 到2020年我国现行标准下农村贫困人口要实现脱贫，贫困县全部摘帽，解决区域性整体贫困。而县级政府作为脱贫攻坚战的直接指挥者、施行者以及推动者，对顺利完成脱贫攻坚战起着关键的作用。同时，金融作为现代经济的核心，对推进经济发展，实现贫困人口脱贫具有举足轻重的作用。需要指出的是，近年来，伴随着我国金融改革的稳步推进，金融服务实体经济的能力进一步增强。而实体经济的繁荣也为深化金融改革创造了良好的经济环境。然