中国农业转移人口市民化测度的研究.docVIP

中国农业转移人口市民化测度的研究 　　摘 要： 推进农业转移人口市民化是走中国特色新型城镇化道路的首要任务。基于国家卫生和计划生育委员会的大样本调查数据，采用biprobit模型对农业转移人口留城意愿和住房情况的影响因素进行联立分析，并计算不同代际的农业转移人口市民化的可能性及其抑制程度。研究发现：个人因素（稳定的职业、受教育程度、高收入）、社会融合因素（社保、人际关系）、区域因素（跨省流动、流入地）直接影响农业转移人口市民化。经计算，农业转移人口的市民化程度为6.4%，以“80后”最高，“90后”最低；其市民化抑制程度为89.9%，以“90后”最高，“80后”最低。最后提出促进农业转移人口市民化的政策建议。 　　关键词： 农业转移人口；市民化；第一代；新生代；biprobit模型 　　中图分类号： C922 文献标识码：A 文章编号：1000-4149（2017）05-0108-08 DOI：10.3969/j.issn.1000-4149.2017.05.010 　　A Research on Citizenization Measurement of Rural-Urban Migrants in China： 　　Based on the Investigation of the Agricultural Transfer Population in the 8 Cities of 　　the Whole Country 　　ZHANG Jiangxue， TANG Yu 　　（School of Economics and Resource Management， Beijing Normal University， Beijing 100875， China） 　　Abstract： It is the main task of the new urbanization with Chinese characteristics to promote the citizenization of rural-urban migrants. Based on the floating population dynamic survey data of National Health and Family Planning Commission， we analyzed influence factors of the rural-urban migrants’ decision for settlement and housing conditions using biprobit model. We calculate the possibility and the degree of inhibition of citizenization of rural-urban migrants. Results show that personal factors （stable occupation， level of education， high income）， social integration factors （social security， interpersonal relation）， regional factors （inter provincial migration， inflow region） directly affect the citizenization of rural-urban migrants. After calculation， the degree of citizenization of rural-urban migrants is 6.4%， the highest is the cohort born in 1980s， while the lowest is the cohort born in 1990s； and the degree of inhibition is 89.9%， the highest is the cohort born in 1990s， while the lowest is the cohort born in 1980s. Finally， we put forwards policy recommendations to promote the citizenization of rural-urban migrants. 　　Keywords： rural-urban migrants； citizenization； first generation； new generation； biprob