电力系统负荷预测指数平滑法研究-电力系统及其自动化专业论文.docx

三峡大学学位论文原创性声明 本人郑重声明：所呈交的学位论文，是本人在导师的指导下，独立进行研究工作 所取得的成果，除文中已经注明引用的内容外，本论文不含任何其他个人或集体已经 发表或撰写过的作品成果。对本文的研究做出重要贡献的个人和集体均已在文中以明 确方式标明，本人完全意识到本声明的法律后果由本人承担。 学位论文作者签名： 日 期： 目 录 摘要 Abstract 第 1 章 概论 ········································································· 1 1.1 选题的目的和意义 ························································ 1 1.2 电力系统负荷预测的基本概念 ········································· 2 1.3 电力系统负荷的影响因素 ··············································· 3 1.4 电力系统负荷的误差分析 ··············································· 4 1.5 本文所做工作 ······························································ 5 第 2 章 国内外负荷预测技术的研究动态 ····································· 7 2.1 超短期预测技术 ··························································· 7 2.2 短期预测技术 ······························································ 9 2.3 中长期预测技术 ·························································· 11 2.4 预测方法的比较 ·························································· 12 第 3 章 指数平滑法的理论基础 ················································ 14 3.1 一次指数平滑法 ·························································· 14 3.2 二次指数平滑法 ·························································· 15 3.3 三次指数平滑法 ·························································· 16 3.4 指数平滑法小结 ·························································· 18 3.5 优选平滑系数的原则和方法 ··········································· 21 第 4 章 基于“厚近薄远”原则的指数平滑预测 ··························· 23 4.1 “厚近薄远”的原则和方法 ··········································· 23 4.2 “厚近薄远”的实验研究 ·············································· 24 4.3 “厚近薄远”原则和“远近相同”原则的比较 ··················· 38 第 5 章 “厚近薄远”原则指数平滑法的应用实例 ························ 41 第 6 章 结论与展望 ······························································· 45 致谢 参考文献 附录Ⅰ：Matlab 编程 附录Ⅱ：攻读硕士学位期间发表的部分学术论著 摘 要 电力系统负荷预测是根据历史用电量，结合经济、社会、气象等客观因素，探索 历史数据的变化规律对未来电力负荷的影响，寻求电力负荷与各种相关因素之间的内 在联系，从而对未来的电力负荷变化做出科学准确的判断。 随着我国电力市场的快速发展，电力负荷预测在电力系统中的地位和作用日益凸 显。它不仅是国家电网规划工作的基础，还是保证电力系统安全运行