城市洪水灾害系统的智能评价模型研究市政工程专业论文.docxVIP

城市洪水灾害系统的智能评价模型研究摘要 城市洪水灾害系统的智能评价模型研究 摘要 随着人口的增长、经济的发展以及城市化进程的加快，洪水灾害的影响越 来越大，尤其是对城市的影响，城市洪水灾害的影响已经很大程度上影响了城 市的规划与发展。解决城市洪水灾害问题已成为很多城市的当务之急，其中的 基础问题之一就是进行城市洪水灾害系统评价。针对城市洪水灾害系统评价中 存在许多模糊性、随机性等不确定性问题，提出将智能评价方法与城市洪水灾 害系统评价问题结合，通过不同的计算智能方法建立评价模型，并将其应用于 城市洪水灾害系统评价问题的各个环节中。文中主要探讨了三方面的城市洪水 灾害系统智能评价问题：对洪水灾害易损性评价采用模糊集方法评价问题转化 为优化问题，用遗传算法解决优化问题；对洪水灾情等级评价采用人工神经网 络与模糊集方法的组合，用神经网络优化模糊集隶属函数的参数；对防洪方案 的优选采用投影寻踪方法将其转化为优化问题，用遗传算法解决。上述智能评 价模型成功地应用于实际城市洪水灾害系统评价中，结果表明：深入开展城市 洪水灾害系统的智能评价研究，既可进～步揭示城市洪水灾害系统的复杂特征， 也有助于发展和完善城市洪水灾害系统评价理论，是城市系统工程新的发展方 向，具有广泛的应用前景。 关键词：城市洪水灾害；系统评价：灾害易损性；灾情评价；方案优选；遗传 算法；人工神经网络；模糊集方法 A A Study of the Intelligent Modeling of Urban Flood Disaster System Evaluation ABSTRACT With the expansion of population，development of economy and acceleration of urbanization，flood disasters have more and more effect，especially on cities． Urban flood disasters have mainly influenced the planning and development of city． To solve the urban flood disaster problem has being the urgent matter of many cities，in which one of the basis is to evaluate the urban flood disaster system．To solve the fuzziness，randomicity in urban flood disaster system evaluation，I propose to combine intelligent evaluation methods and urban flood disaster system evaluation problems，modeling through different intelligent calculation methods and apply into every aspects of urban flood disaster system evaluation problems． The thesis mainly discuss three aspects of urban flood disaster system intelligent evaluation problems：for flood disaster vulnerability evaluation，transform it into optimal problem by using fuzzy sets evaluation method，then solve the optimal problem by using GA；for flood situation grade evaluation，combine ANN and Fuzzy sets，namely optimize membership function parameters of fuzzy sets by using ANN；for flood prevention scheme optimal selection，transform it into optimal problem by using proj ect pursuit(PP)method，then solve the optimal problem by using GA．The above intelligent models successfully