环球市场与金融机构风险管理.pdf

Markets and Institutional Risk Management 环球市场与金融机构风险管理 Paula Tan - Senior Manager, MIRM Singapore 陈宝华- 环球市场与机构风险管理部高级经理（新加坡） Agenda 议程  Trends in the banking industry 银行业的发展趋势  ChallengesChallenges - goinggoing forwardforward 面临的挑战  Credit Risk Business Model 信贷风险业务模型  Issues for risk management 风险控制的要点 Changing attitudes towards credit 信贷观点的转变 “Neither a borrower nor a lender be” and he reasoned “loan often loses both itself and friend, and borrowingg dulls the edge of husbandry” “既不要做借款人，也不要做贷款人”- 理由是“贷款常使 我们失去资金和朋友，而向人借钱又让我们淡忘节俭” Debts and more debts (Liabilities/PDI %) 日益增长的负债(负债/个人可支配收入%） 2000 1996 Singapore 新加坡 174 118 USAUSA 美国 90 80 Japan 日本 100 100 France 法国 54 50 UK 英国 116 107 Irrational Exuberance - Alan Greenspan, 5 December 1996 非理性却充满激情 -艾伦.格林斯潘, 1996年12月5 日 Why was the world so fixated on these words, and what were thethe precipitatingprecipitating factorsfactors inin thethe worldworld then?then? 为什么整个世界都曾关注这些话题，又是什么因素使它迅速传播？ Precipitating Factors 传播的因素  Arrival of the Internet 互联网时代的到来  Baby boom 生育高峰  Expansion of media in reporting business news 媒体商业报道的扩张  Expansion of Pension Funds 养老金的增长  DeclineDecline ofof InflationInflation 通货膨涨率的下降通货膨涨率的下降  Growth of mutual funds 共同基金的增长  Rise of gambling opportunities and Trading Volume 获利投机机会的增加与贸易额的上升  Get rich culture 致富文化  Optimism 乐观主义  Bankruptcy has no stigma 无污点的破产  Decline of Foreign Economic Rivals 国外经济竞争对手的衰败 Outlook for the Millennium 展望新千年  Internet