基于人口结构视角的义务教育公共支出影响因素分析-西方经济学专业论文.docxVIP

暨南大学硕士学位论文 暨南大学硕士学位论文 万方数据 万方数据 摘 要 义务教育经过 30 多年发展，基本已经得到普及。但在现有的义务教育财政 制度下，我国区域间、城乡间、校际间义务教育公共服务不均衡问题已经显现。 本文从居民需求角度分析地方政府义务教育公共支出的理论影响因素，探讨了人 口自然、非自然结构，人口家庭结构的影响；从政府供给角度分析地方政府义务 教育公共支出的理论影响因素，探讨了本级财政收入、财政分权程度、转移支付、 政府竞争的影响。并利用我国 2002 年到 2012 年 31 省市的平衡面板数据从供给 和需求两方面实证分析义务教育公共支出的影响因素。结果发现供给方面的因素 基本都显著。需求方面的因素中：人口自然结构方面少儿抚养比显著且系数为正， 人口性别结构显著且系数为负；人口非自然结构方面人口民族、文化教育结构不 显著，人口地域分布、城乡、职业结构显著且系数为正；人口家庭结构显著且系 数为正。最后将我国分为东、中、西部三个地区进一步剖析影响因素的区际差异， 分东、中、西部地区来看，财政分权变量、义务教育公共支出偏好、转移支付只 在中、西部地区回归中显著，人口性别、城乡、地域分布、职业结构只在西部地 区回归中显著。 关键词：义务教育公共支出；人口结构；影响因素区际差异 - I Abstract Tracking the development of compulsory education in China, the government has basically made compulsory education popularized in the last 30 years. Under the present financial institution of compulsory education, it is obvious that the problem of unbalanced financial investment among different regions, urban and rural areas, even schools in the same region still exists. This paper discusses the influences of the local government’s public expenditure on compulsory education such as natural structure of population, unnatural structure of population and family structure of population from the demand’s point of view and influence of the local government’s public expenditure on compulsory education such as local finance income, the degree of fiscal decentralization, transfer payment and government competition from the supply’s point of view. Based on balanced panel data from Chinas 31 provinces from 2002 to 2011, this paper attempts to empirically analyze influences of our country public expenditure on compulsory education from the view of supply and demand. The results show that all factors of supply are basically significant. The results of demand factors show that: about natural population structure child-age dependency rate was positively significant and sex-structure of population is negatively significant. About unnatural population structure the ethnic structure and cultural and educational structure of the pop