基于Lotka_Volterra_省略_与演化趋势_以我国高技术产业为例_何向武_.docxVIP

科技进步与对策 科技进步与对策 2018 年 何向武，周文泳：基于 何向武，周文泳：基于Lotka-Volterra模型的技术引进生态关系与演化趋势 网络出版时间：2018-01-22 12:08:12 网络出版地址： /kcms/detail/42.1224.G31207.012.html 科技进步与对策 Science Technology Progress and Policy 基于Lotka-Volterra模型的技术引进生态关系与演化趋势 ——以我国高技术产业为例 何向武，周文泳 (同济大学经济与管理学院，上海200090) 摘要：技术引进创新是高技术产业技术创新的重要方式。基于生态系统理论和Lotka-Volterm模型，构 建高技术产业国内技术购买与国外技术引进生态模型，以《中国高技术产业统计年鉴（1995 — 2014年）》中 技术引进相关数据为基础进行实证分析，运用MAPE方法判别模型预测能力，基于模型参数和生态系统理 论分析国内技术购买与国外技术引进生态关系，运用微分方程理论和稳定性理论分析技术引进演化趋势。 结果表明：国内技术购买与国外技术引进不存在稳定的平衡点，国外技术引进抑制了国内技术购买，国内 技术购买促进了国外技术引进。两者发展趋势表明，国外技术引进最终会替代国内技术购买，结论对于高 技术产业技术引进创新具有较高的理论意义和实践价值。 关键词：Lotka-Volterm模型；技术引进；生态关系；演化趋势；高技术产业 DOI：10. 6049/kjjbydc. 2017040345 中图分类号：F124. 3 文献标识码：A Research on the Ecological Relationship and Evolution of the Technology Import with the Lotka-Volterra Model in the Case of China’s High-Tech Industry He Xiangwu, Zhou Wenyong (School of Economics and Management, Tongji University, Shanghai 200092, China) Abstract ： Technology Import is an important way of hi-tech industry technology innovation. Through using ecological system theory and Lotka-Volterra Model, this paper constructs the model of the Purchase of Domestic Technology (DT) and Acquisition of Foreign Technology (FT) to hi-tech industries. Based on the statistical data of China s hi-tech industries statistical yearbook (from 1995 to 2014) , this paper makes empirical research to analyze the ecological relationship and the evolution property of DT and FT and evaluates the fitting and forecasting performance of the model through using index of the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). The study shows that there is not equilibrium point between DT and FT, that FT can restrain DT, that DT can promote FT, that FT can substitute DT in the end. The results of this study provide some practical enlightenment for technology import in improving technology import of hi -tech industries. Key Words：Lotka-Volterra Model； Technology Import； Ecological Relationship； Evolution Proper