摩根斯丹利-日本宏观经济-20170810-morganstanley-japaneconomiccalendarcanjapanreach3％growth.pdfVIP

August 10, 2017 05:25 AM GMT MORGAN STANLEY MUFG SECURITIES CO., LTD. Japan Economic Calendar Japan Economic Calendar Takeshi Yamaguchi ECONOMIST Takeshi.Yamaguchi@ +81 3 6836-5404 Can Japan Reach 3% Growth? Shoki Omori RESEARCH ASSOCIATE Shoki.Omori@ +81 3 6836-5466 Apr-Jun GDP Preview: Strong Growth On Domestic Demand (The following is an excerpt from Japan Economics: Apr-Jun GDP Preview: Strong Growth On Domestic Demand (31 Jul 2017), with some data updated. Please see the report for details.) We expect real GDP growth to have accelerated in Apr-Jun (Aug 14), reflecting robust figures for the domestic demand items of public investment, personal consumption, and capex. Faster real GDP growth in Apr-Jun: We expect brisk real GDP growth for Apr-Jun (1st preliminary data to be released Aug 14) at +3.0% QoQ SAAR (+0.7% QoQ). While we anticipate a positive contribution from inventory, we look for firm growth in final demand excluding inventory as well driven by a recovery in domestic demand. Fiscal expansion to finally come into play: We expect very strong QoQ growth in public investment rather than just a swing to positive territory to boost GDP growth in Apr-Jun, given strong Apr-May construction statistics. Public investment declined QoQ for the third straight quarter up to Jan-Mar 2017 due