瑞信-全球-股票策略-全球股市展望-2020.3.25-43页.pdfVIP

25 March 2020 Equity Research Global Global Equity Strategy The outlook for equities Investment Strategy | Strategy New EPS growth forecasts: Our US strategist has taken US EPS growth down to -25% in Research Analysts 2020 and +20% in 2021. Our models agree, and for Europe we take it down to -32% in 2020 and +25% in 2021. Andrew Garthwaite Economics forecasts: Our economists have taken their euro area GDP forecast down to -4% 44 20 7883 6477 and -0.9% for the US for 2020, but importantly forecast that the level of pre-virus GDP will be andrew.garthwaite@ hit by the middle of 2021. We believe that, as occurred in China, global PMIs will fall to around Robert Griffiths 30, which would be consistent with a trough of -c.2% global GDP growth. 44 20 7883 8885 Markets: The key issue is the multiple on the new depressed earnings: a normal bear market robert.griffiths@ sees a 35% de-rating compared with 30% so far, but we think consensus earnings are c30% Nicolas Wylenzek too high. We believe central banks will permanently depress real bond yields relative to GDP 44 20 7883 6480 growth, and therefore that the equity risk premium model is the appropriate model to use, rather nicolas.wylenzek@ than absolute P/E multiples. The rise in credit spreads has pushed up our model of the warranted ERP from 4.6% to 8.2% against an actual of 8.6%. If we assume that ISM ends the Mengyuan Yuan 44 20 7888 0368 year at 50 and spreads fall marginally, then