业绩承诺视角下传媒业溢价并购的风险研究——以天神娱乐为例.pdfVIP

摘 要 在 2013 年中共中央明确推出鼓励上市公司进行并购重组整合的政策 开始，A 股市场上就涌起一波又一波的并购浪潮。随之而来的是商誉规模 也在空前扩大当中。如此膨胀的商誉其实埋藏了不少炸弹，他们随着业绩 承诺临近结束期而齐齐引爆，于是便有了2018 年A 股市场上多家业绩良 好的公司集中爆雷的现象。在这些行业当中，文化传媒产业爆的似乎最为 惨烈。 为了论证业绩承诺会放大溢价并购的风险性，以及其增加引爆商誉的 可能，本文采用文献分析法对本文将涉及的理论和概念进行说明解释，并 且也会在后文证明本文观点的时候加以引用作为佐证；还会采用对比分析 法，将案例公司天神娱乐和行业整体情况进行比较分析；此外，本文还会 用到案例分析法，这也是本文所用的核心方法，对天神娱乐并购案进行深 入分析，得出业绩承诺会推高并购的溢价，加大商誉减值及其引发的一些 列后续的风险。 当下，文化传媒行业，或许包括其他行业的投资者、经营者，正到了 这样一个关口，呼唤更规范严格的政策、规则，对并购重组交易的具体事 项进行规范，呼唤并购交易上市公司能采取更为公允严谨的方式进行评 估，能更谨慎的对待商誉。当然这些只靠主观愿望是不够的，笔者相信经 历了2018 年商誉大“洗澡”后，无论是市场监管者还是经营者、投资者， 都会更谨慎的看待这个问题。 本文的成果是从文化传媒行业这个角度，以溢价并购为主题，切中分 析业绩承诺作为一种支付对价的手段，它和标的企业被高估、商誉爆雷存 在一定关联，并给出几点建议。 关键词：溢价并购；业绩承诺；文化传媒业；商誉 I I ABSTRACT The academic world has never stopped talking about Mergers and Reorganizations, but the most talked-about year for Mergers and Acquisitions probably began in 2013. In 2013, the central committee of the communist party of China explicitly introduced A policy to encourage listed companies to carry out merger, reorganization and integration. And then on ，wave after wave of mergers and acquisitions were launched on the A stock market. Subsequently, the scale of goodwill is also in unprecedented expansion. Such inflated goodwill actually buried a lot of bombs, which were detonated together with the performance commitment near the end of the period. Thus, in 2018, A number of companies with good performance in the A stock market witnessed the phenomenon of goodwill explosion. Among these industries, the cultural media industry seems to be the worst. In order to demonstrate that the performance promise will magnify the risk of premium MA and increase the likelihood of exploding goodwill, this paper adopts li