啤酒游戏培训资料课件.pptVIP

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2022-09-08 发布于重庆
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啤酒游戏培训资料课件.ppt

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Artificial Agents Play the Beer Game Eliminate the Bullwhip Effect and Whip the MBAs Steven O. Kimbrough D.-J. Wu Fang Zhong FMEC, Philadelphia, June 2000; file: beergameslides.ppt 第一页，共三十页。 The MIT Beer Game Players Retailer, Wholesaler, Distributor and Manufacturer. Goal Minimize system-wide (chain) long-run average cost. Information sharing: Mail. Demand: Deterministic. Costs Holding cost: $1.00/case/week. Penalty cost: $2.00/case/week. Leadtime: 2 weeks physical delay 第二页，共三十页。 Timing 1. New shipments delivered. 2. Orders arrive. 3. Fill orders plus backlog. 4. Decide how much to order. 5. Calculate inventory costs. 第三页，共三十页。 Game Board … 第四页，共三十页。 The Bullwhip Effect Order variability is amplified upstream in the supply chain. Industry examples (PG, HP). 第五页，共三十页。 Observed Bullwhip effect from undergraduates game playing 第六页，共三十页。 Bullwhip Effect Example (P G) Lee et al., 1997, Sloan Management Review 第七页，共三十页。 Analytic Results: Deterministic Demand Assumptions: Fixed lead time. Players work as a team. Manufacturer has unlimited capacity. “1-1” policy is optimal -- order whatever amount is ordered from your customer. 第八页，共三十页。 Analytic Results: Stochastic Demand (Chen, 1999, Management Science) Additional assumptions: Only the Retailer incurs penalty cost. Demand distribution is common knowledge. Fixed information lead time. Decreasing holding costs upstream in the chain. Order-up-to (base stock installation) policy is optimal. 第九页，共三十页。 Agent-Based Approach Agents work as a team. No agent has knowledge on demand distribution. No information sharing among agents. Agents learn via genetic algorithms. Fixed or stochastic leadtime. 第十页，共三十页。 Research Questions Can the agents track the demand? Can the agents eliminate the Bullwhip effect? Can the agents discover the optimal policies if they exist? Can the agents discover reasonably good policies under complex scenarios wher