决策管理导论.pptVIP

学习目标2.4小结 描述不同类型的决策并讨论偏见如何影响决策。 线性思维模式的特点是偏向使用外部数据,通过理性和逻辑思考处理信息。 非线性思维模式的特点是偏向使用内部信息来源,使用内在洞察力、感受和直觉处理信息。 第六十二页，共六十五页。 学习目标2.5小结 识别有效的决策技术。 有效的决策过程有六个特点: (1)关注重点; (2)符合逻辑且前后一致; (3)认可主观和客观的思考,直觉思维与理性分析结合; (4)需要足够多的信息和分析以解决特殊问题; (5)鼓励和指导收集相关信息和富有见地的意见; (6)直接、可靠、易于采用而且灵活 第六十三页，共六十五页。 学习目标2.5小结（续） 设计思维是“像设计师解决设计问题一样去解决管理问题”。 第六十四页，共六十五页。 内容总结 决策。微软——Windows 8“开始”按钮。是一个包含多个步骤的过程，“选择”只是其中一个环节。现在状态和希望状态之间的差异。决策标准是对解决问题重要或与之相关的重要因素。如果问题没有解决，问题出在哪里。● 我应该让多少员工直接向我汇报。对组织决策而言，符合组织利益最大化。决策者无法分析所有备择方案的所有信息。告诉管理者能做什么和不能做什么的明确声明。程序化与非程序化决策。风险——在这种情况下，决策者能够估计特定结果的概率。不确定性——在这种情况下，对结果不确定,甚至不能作出合理的概率估计。机器台时总量为1200，则机器台时约束条件表述为:。s.t.。3.等可能性准则：假设等可能性条件下，期望值最大 第六十五页，共六十五页。 * * * * * * * * * * * * Some problems are straightforward. The decision maker’s goal is clear, the problem is familiar, and information about the problem is easily defined and complete. Such situations are called structured problems because they’re straightforward, familiar, and easily defined. Because it’s not an unusual occurrence, there’s probably some standardized routine for handling it. This is what we call a programmed decision, a repetitive decision that can be handled by a routine approach. Because the problem is structured, the manager doesn’t have to go to the trouble and expense of going through an involved decision process. The “develop-the-alternatives” stage of the decision-making process either doesn’t exist or is given little attention. Why? Because once the structured problem is defined, the solution is usually self-evident or at least reduced to a few alternatives that are familiar and have proved successful in the past. * * Not all the problems managers face can be solved using programmed decisions. Many organizational situations involve unstructured problems, new or unusual problems for which information is ambiguous or incomplete. Whether to build a new manufacturing facility in China is an example of an unstructured problem. * Exhibit 2-7 describes the differences between programmed and n