预测美国各地的气候变化 Anticipating Climate Change Across the United States.docx

NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES ANTICIPATING CLIMATE CHANGE ACROSS THE UNITED STATES Adrien Bilal Esteban Rossi-Hansberg Working Paper 31323 /papers/w31323 NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138 June 2023 Adrien Bilal gratefully acknowledges support from the Chae Family Economics Research Fund. Esteban Rossi-Hansberg acknowledges support from the Becker-Friedman Institute and the Kenneth C. Griffin Department of Economics at the University of Chicago. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research. NBER working papers are circulated for discussion and comment purposes. They have not been peer-reviewed or been subject to the review by the NBER Board of Directors that accompanies official NBER publications. ? 2023 by Adrien Bilal and Esteban Rossi-Hansberg. All rights reserved. Short sections of text, not to exceed two paragraphs, may be quoted without explicit permission provided that full credit, including ? notice, is given to the source. Anticipating Climate Change Across the United States Adrien Bilal and Esteban Rossi-Hansberg NBER Working Paper No. 31323 June 2023 JEL No. C6,E3,Q54,R11 ABSTRACT We evaluate how anticipation and adaptation shape the aggregate and local costs of climate change. We develop a dynamic spatial model of the U.S. economy and its 3,143 counties that features costly forward-looking migration and capital investment decisions. Recent methodological advances that leverage the `Master Equation representation of the economy make the model tractable. We estimate the county-level impact of severe storms and heat waves over the 20th century on local income, population, and investment. The estimated impact of storms matches that of capital depreciation shocks in the model, while heat waves resemble combined amenity and productivity shocks. We then estimate migration and investment elast