四通高科股份有限公司的财务预警研究.pdfVIP

摘 要 本文把上市公司中的ST公司界定为财务危机企业，并结合ST四通高科股份 有限公司的财务数据进行财务预警研究 。2001年到2003年的四通高科股份有 限公司三年的年度财务报告显示，该公司一直亏损，出现财务危机。四通高科股 份有限公司曾是中国高科技行业的领袖“人物”，为什么会出现财务危机？我们 应如何测度财务危机？为解决这些问题，本文对四通高科股份有限公司近几年的 财务资料和相关的资料进行研究分析，并尝试将西方的财务预警系统的单变量模 型、多变模型和F分数模型应用于四通高科股份有限公司，这有助于研究财务状 况，进行危机控制，及时发现财务危机信号，提早发出警报，以避免出现危机， 并将财务损失降至最低限度。 关键词：财务危机, 单变量模型, 多变量模型, F分数模型 Ⅰ Abstract This paper defines the companies with financial crises as ST companies, as well combines financial data of SITONG HI-TECH co. LTD to do research on financial forecast. Showing in annual financial report from 2001 to 2003 of SITONG HI-TECH co. LTD, which suffered great loss and financial crises. SITONG HI-TECH co. LTD was once regarded as the leader of Chinese hi-tech business. But why suffered financial crises ? How can we forecast and measure financial crises? In order to look for the reason causing the kind of state and deal with these problems, we should resort to the analysis of the recent years’ financial dates and relevant information of SITONG HI-TECH co. LTD, as well as the application of several chief financial forecasting models in west, such as Single factor model, Z-score model and F-score model to SITONG HI-TECH co. LTD, which will provide support for the research of financial circumstance and the control of financial crises; which in turn will also help to find signals of financial crises in time and deliver warnings in advance in order to avoid the appearance of crises, as well as to reduce the financial losses to the minimum line. Key words: financial crises ， Single factor model ， Z-score model ， F-score model