基于云模型的城市极端雨洪灾害风险评价研究.docVIP

  基于云模型的城市极端雨洪灾害风险评价 研究# 王贺1,3，刘高峰2,3，王慧敏1,3** 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 （1. 河海大学商学院，南京 211100； 2. 河海大学企业管理学院，常州 213022； 3. 河海大学水文水资源与水利工程国家重点实验室，南京 210098） 摘要：构建最大 24h 降雨量、平均淹没水深、淹没历时、受灾人口率、受灾面积率、GDP 损失率 6 个指标，综合运用层次分析法和熵权法确定各指标的权重，通过云模型定量评价各 指标下风险的等级，建立基于正态云模型的极端雨洪下城市洪水风险综合评价模型。对景德 镇极端雨洪引发的洪水进行风险评价，得到 1990—2012 年景德镇每年的风险等级，找出引 发洪水风险的关键因素。结果表明，景德镇深受洪水的影响，平均淹没水深与淹没历时对洪 水产生的风险有重大影响。通过大量植树造林，增加透水面积；新建排水设施，清理城市排 水管道，可以有效的降低景德镇极端雨洪带来的风险。云模型对于研究极端雨洪造成的城市 洪水风险具有良好的效果。 关键词：云模型；城市极端雨洪灾害；风险评价 中图分类号：X43 Research on Urban Extreme Rainstorms Flood Loss Based on Cloud Model WANG He1,3, LIU Gaofeng2,3, WANG Huimin1,3 (1. Institute of Management Science,Hohai University,Nanjing 211100; 2. College of Business Administration,Changzhou 213022; 3. State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098) Abstract: Effectively evaluate urban extreme storm flood disaster loss is not only a scientific basis for management of urban flood disaster, but also a prerequisite to take reasonable precautions. Urban extreme rainstorm floods forming process is very complex, involving many uncertainties. Accurately describing and expressing these uncertainties is the key to effectively evaluate flood damage. Cloud model is an intelligent scientific methods based on uncertainty analysis. Using existing theoretical approaches, a total of six assessment indexes were considered, such as Maximum 24h rainfall, Average Inundated Depths, etc. We integrated AHP and entropy weight method to determine the weight of each index, quantitative assessed the loss level under each index by the normal cloud model, established urban extreme rainstorms flood damage evaluation model based on normal cloud model. Finally, we evaluated the flood losses triggered by extreme rains, obtained Jingdezhen’ annual loss level from 1990 to 2012, found out the key factors that cause flood damage and improved it. The results shows that Average Inundated Depths and Inundated laste