基于引力模型浙江出口潜力分析毕业论文.docVIP

毕业论文 （20_ _届） 基于引力模型浙江出口潜力分析 摘 要 2009年，由于受到金融危机影响，浙江省出口增长比同期省内经济总量指标低了12.5个百分点。而在此前出口增长一直高出同期省内生产总值15个百分点左右。出口是推动浙江经济增长的最重要的因素之一，在危机影响下是否应该继续扩大出口、又应该对哪些地区采取怎样的出口政策成为了一个亟待解决的问题。引力模型指出，两国或地区之间的双边贸易额与这两国或地区的经济总量成正比，与两者间的空间距离成反比。经济学家常用类似的贸易引力模型说明部门内贸易流量与流向的决定问题本文引力模型的基础  Abstract In 2009, due to the financial crisis, export growth in Zhejiang province was 12.5% lower the economic growth over the same period. The previous years’ export growth has always been higher than the provinces GDP for about 15 percent. Zhejiangs export was one of the most important factors to accelerate the economic growth. Under the influence of the crisis, the serious problems of should or should not continue to expand exports, and which areas should be on and how to re-fix the export policy has come into view. The scale of bilateral trade is proportional to their total economic output, and is inversely proportional to the distance between the two countries. Economists commonly used gravity model to explain the trade flows and the decision problem of trade flows in the department. Thus, system analysis of the gravity model for Zhejiangs export gradually becomes a research topic the. Based on the analysis of the gravity model, this paper studies the export situation and future export potential of Zhejiang Province. Based one the gravity model, the paper use the panel data to analyze the multiple linear regression of the top 14 countries which have the most total trading amount between 2003-2009 by Eviews 5.0. By the analysis above, we find that there is not much room for improvement for Zhejiang Province’s export capacity to Europe and the United States market, based on the existing export structure. As for Japan, South Korea, Russia, Australia and other export less” countries there are still large potential for development. Keywords: Gravity model; multiple regression analysis; Export potential 目 录 1 引力模型概述与国内外相关理论 1 1.1 引力模型的概念 1 1.2 引力模型的国内外相关理论与研究 1 1.2.1 贸易引力模型的理论来源 1 1.2.2 贸易引力模型的发展