宏观经济因素对于房价影响分析.doc

宏观经济因素对于房价影响的分析 —基于广东省的实证分析 广东金融学院 何修穆、梁凯昌、许绮媛 摘要 近年来，广东省房地产发展暴露出一些问题，房价持续走高，成为民生方面的热点话题。 本文：通过构建一个较为完善的指标体系，建立模型分析宏观变量与房价的动态关系；建立多元模型研究进一步房价与各主要的宏观经济要素之间的联动关系；以博弈论为基础，分析政府政策其他人为因素对房价的影响。 通过理论分析和实证研究，本文提出的建议有：一、保持经济的稳定增长。二、对货币供应量的调控就当前的情况应采取紧缩性的货币政策。三、保持人民币汇率的稳定,防止大量的热钱涌入房市，推高房价。四、完善现行住房保障结构，实行差别化的住房金融政策，为非营利机构建设长期出租的保障性住房提供长期优惠贷款利率，建立对低收入者的贷款担保机制。 关键词：房价、模型、多元模型、博弈论 Abstract During the recent years, the estate development of Guangdong province has confronted with some . The skyrocketing housing prices become a hot topic of the people’s livelihood. This paper provides the empirical study of the relationship between real estate price and the macro-economic factors, which influence the estate price: structure a comprehensive data system, and analyze the dynamic relationship between the estate price and those macro-economical factors by establishing the VAR model; established the multi-model GRACH to study the interactive relationship between the real estate prices and those crucial factors; apply the game theory to find out the consistent and balanced and dynamic consistency between government and investors. According to the above theoretical and empirical study, we put forward the following suggestions to make a more effective regulation of Guangdong’s estate market: Firstly, sustain the stability of economic. Secondly, regulate the supply of the currency and formulate the restrictive monetary policy according to the current circumstance. Thirdly, ensure the stability of the exchange rate of RMB to prevent inflow of hot money into the estate market and upsurge of the estate price. Fourthly, better the housing security system. Adopt the discriminating housing financing policy and improve the current housing system by offering long term favorable loan rate for the subsidized housing constructed by none-profit organization and by establishing the credit guarantee system for the low income group. Key words: Estate Price, VAR model, Multi-model GRACH,