Risk Maps for the Spread of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza in Poultry 英文参考文献.docVIP

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Risk Maps for the Spread of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza in Poultry 英文参考文献.doc

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Risk Maps for the Spread of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza in Poultry 英文参考文献

RiskMapsfortheSpreadofHighlyPathogenic AvianInfluenzainPoultry Gert Jan Boender1,Thomas J.Hagenaars1,Annemarie Bouma2,Gonnie Nodelijk1,Armin R.W. Elbers3¤, Mart C.M.de Jong1,Michiel van Boven1* 1AnimalSciencesGroup,WageningenUniversityandResearchCentre,Lelystad,TheNetherlands,2FacultyofVeterinaryMedicine,DepartmentofFarmAnimalHealth, UtrechtUniversity,Utrecht,TheNetherlands,3AnimalHealthService,Deventer,TheNetherlands Devastatingepidemicsofhighlycontagiousanimaldiseasessuchasavianinfluenza,classicalswinefever,andfoot- and-mouth disease underline the need for improved understanding of the factors promoting the spread of these pathogens.Heretheauthorspresentaspatialanalysisofthebetween-farmtransmissionofahighlypathogenicH7N7 avianinfluenzavirusthatcausedalargeepidemicinTheNetherlandsin2003.Theauthorsdevelopedamethodto estimate key parameters determining the spread of highly transmissible animal diseases between farms based on outbreak data. The method allows for the identification of high-risk areas for propagating spread in an epidemiologicallyunderpinnedmanner.Acentralconceptisthetransmissionkernel,whichdeterminestheprobability ofpathogentransmissionfrominfectedtouninfectedfarmsasafunctionofinterfarmdistance.Theauthorsshowhow anestimateofthetransmissionkernelnaturallyprovidesestimatesofthecriticalfarmdensityandlocalreproduction numbers,whichallowsonetoevaluatetheeffectivenessofcontrolstrategies.Foravianinfluenza,theanalysesshow that there are two poultry-dense areas in The Netherlands where epidemic spread is possible, and in which local control measures are unlikely to be able to halt an unfolding epidemic. In these regions an epidemic can only be brought to an end by the depletion of susceptible farms by infection or massive culling. The analyses provide an estimate of the spatial range over which highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses spread between farms, and emphasizethatcontrolmeasuresaimedatcontrollingsuchoutbreaksneedtotakeintoaccountthelocaldensi