基于quot;前景理论quot;的路径选择行为建模及实例分析.pdfVIP

土木工程学报 Vo 1.4O No.7 第40 卷第7 期 CHINA CIVIL ENGINEERING JOURNAL 2007 年7 月 Jul. 2007 基于前景理论的路径选择行为建模及实例分析 赵凛张妥臣 (北京交通大学，北京 1棚44) 摘要:出行者路径选择付为的建模对于城市交通系统分析具有意薯的理论价值和实践意义。传统的路铅选择棋翻 基于期盟般用现论，翻该现论存在着某些不足。前最现论能够较好的描述不确定性条件下的决策过耀。 首先在前景理论的框架下对一天内单吹出行的路径端择行为进行了理论建模:确定了出行者的主观感知费用 函数，井定义了出行过程中的参照点，给出了前景值的计算方畴。最后以具有两条平行路径的简单路网为例，从 理论推算以及SP 调查两方面，对比了基于前景理论与基于期望效用理论的路径选择模型，结果表明 前景理论在描述出行者的路径选择行为时能够在…班程度上克服期望效用理论的不足，可以较准确地刻 画出行者在不确定性条件下的路径选择决策行为，也为进一步对ATIS 影响分析及仿真建模工作奠定了理论基础。 关键词:前景理论;期盟她用醺论:路佳选择行为;实例分析 111 团分提号: U491 文献栋t只码:A 文意蝙号: 1创协131X (2007) 仰舶82础 A traveler route choice model based OD prospect theory and case study zhω Lin zhωzg Xi咽U加n (Beíjíng Jiaotong University , Beijingl创阳44， China) Abs衍act: It is criticalωmodel traveler s route choice behavior when ana1yzing the transportation system. 咀le disadvantages of the Expected Utility Theory, which 肥凹esωa hasis for most of the existing route choice models, are reviewed. Within the framework of Prospect Theory, 8 theoretical model is formulated for travele邸， route choice behavior within a day as follows: (1) The travel啊s suhjective perc叩tion function of trip C08t is proposed , (2) The definition of reference point for travelers trip decision is defined, and (3) the calculation method of pros阳ct va1ue is provided. The Pro8pect Theory is compared with the Expect Utility Theory in their ahility of modeling travele邸· route choice hehavior from theoretical calculations and SP surveys, respectively, through a c嗣e study. 叽le results demonstrate 出8t the Prospect Theory could provide a more accurate