上市公司价值投资应用的分析-会计学专业论文.docx

摘要摘要首先，本文从价值投资应用的理论基础出发，论证价值投资不仅是可行的而 且分析了该理念优势的深层次原因。以“有限理性人”为核心假设前提，揭示了 价值投资的理论基础，指出通过基本面分析、评价和内在价值的评估，在价值与 价格波动中进行决策，从而获得了低风险、高回报的投资机会。然后，构建价值投资的核心内容：上市公司基本面分析指标体系与评价。从 财务状况、核心竞争力、经营管理、外部环境等四个维度为投资者提供了一个清 晰的、相对完整的、系统化的基本面分析体系。在全面分析基本面的基础上对基 本进行评价，采用 Fuzzy AHP 方法确定指标权重，再对各指标评分，得出基本面 的综合评分，作为上市公司内在价值评估的依据。其后，在实现量化基本面评价的基础上，对上市公司进行内在价值评估。本 文采用股权自由现金流量折现法，建立了基于基本面评价的贴现模型，同时通过 分析关键驱动因素来预测未来现金流量，从而实现与现金流量折现法的两个关键 性变量：贴现率和未来现金流量建立了内在的逻辑关系。体现出了基本面分析评 价的价值和意义，也使评估方法有理有据。再之，选择一家上市公司，从基本面分析、基本面评价、内在价值评估、投 资决策等四方面论证价值投资理论指引实践操作的整个过程，从实践的角度论证 价值投资的可行性和优越性。最后本文指出，价值投资的理论基础、基本面分析与评价、内在价值评估三 者形成了一个统一的整体，从而使价值投资具有很强的理念优势和实用价值，必 定能指引投资者进行科学地投资分析和决策，并最终战胜市场。关键词： 价值投资，基本面分析指标体系，基本面评价，股权自由现金流量折现 法ABSTRACTABSTRACTFirst, this article bases on the value investment applications rationale, draw the conclusion that the value investment was not only feasible and has analyzed deep reasones of this theory. Take “the limited rational person” as the core supposition, has elaborated the value investment rationale, pointed out that through the fundamental analysis and evaluation and assess the intrinsic value, decision-making in the value and the price fluctuations can be carried on, which will lead to low risk, the high repayment opportunities for investment.Then, the article constructs value investment central content: fundamental analysis index system and evaluation of the fundamentals. Based on the financial situation, the key competitiveness, the management and operation, the external environment have provided a complete, systematizations fundamental analysis system for the investor clearly. The article uses Fuzzy AHP and definite index weighing and grading, obtains synthesis grading of the fundamental analysis, which takes to evaluate intrinsic value.Furthermore, the article carries on the evaluation of the intrinsic value through the stockholders rights free cash flow discounting, has established a discount model based on evaluation of the fundamentals. The model forecasts in the future th