基于偏最小二乘回归模型湖北省粮食产量影响因素分析.docVIP

基于偏最小二乘回归模型的湖北省粮食产量影响因素分析 　　摘要：以湖北省为研究区域，选取9个影响粮食产量因素指标，通过对自变量之间的多重共线性进行分析诊断，构建了基于C-D生产函数的2000～2014年湖北省粮食产量影响因素的偏最小二乘回归（Partial least squares regression，PLSR）模型。PLSR模型中，自变量对因变量均具有较好的解释能力，回归模型的Rcv2=0.946，表明回归模型的精度较高，拟合效果较好，可靠性强。结果表明，粮食作物播种面积、农业机械化总动力、农田有效灌溉面积、农用化肥施用量以及农村用电量共5个指标是影响湖北省粮食产量的关键因素。 　　关键词：偏最小二乘回归分析；粮食产量；影响因素；湖北省 　　中?D分类号：F30 文献标识码：A 文章编号：0439-8114（2017）13-2553-06 　　DOI：10.14088/j.cnki.issn0439-8114.2017.13.039 　　Analysis of Factors Influencing Grain Production of Hubei Province Based on Partial Least Squares Regression 　　WU Hong-xia1， LI Jing-jing2， NIE Yan1， TONG Qiu-ying3，WU Xi-zi3 　　（1. Central China Normal University， College of Urban Environmental Science， Wuhan 430079， China； 2. Research Institute of Land Resources in Hubei Province， Wuhan 430071， China； 3. Wuhan Land Resources and Planning Information Center， Wuhan 430079， China） 　　Abstract： Taking Hubei Province as the research area， 9 indicators were selected which affected grain production from 2000 to 2014 in Hubei province， the influence factors of grain production partial least-square regression model were constructed which based on C-D production function after analyzing and diagnosing the multiple mutual linear between the independent variables. The PLSR model of grain production indicated that the independent variables had good explanatory power for the dependent variables. Moreover， the goodness of fit Rcv2=0.946 of regression model showed there were high precision， strong reliability and better fitting effect. The results indicated that 5 indicators including the grain sown area， the total power of agricultural machinery， the effective irrigated area of farmland， the quantity of chemical fertilizer and rural power consumption were the main factors which affected grain yield in Hubei Province. 　　Key words： partial least squares regression analysis；grain production；impact factor；Hubei province 　　“民以食为天”，粮食是国家的战略物资，是人民的生存根本。随着社会经济的快速发展以及人口的日益增加，粮食问题已经越来越受国家和人们的高度关注。2008年国务院发布了《国