南水北调西线工程水源区草地退化对气候变化影响研究.docVIP

南水北调西线工程水源区草地退化对气候变化影响研究 　　摘要:以气候变化为研究背景,利用区域气候模式RegCM3,通过改变研究区土地覆被类型进行模拟试验,探讨草地退化对西线水源区大气环流、地表温度、降水和径流深等关键气候水文要素的影响。草地退化后,水源区的气候出现暖干化趋势,具体表现为:青藏高原地区500 hPa和850 hPa处的高度场出现大范围的负值区,而研究区东部增加;年平均温度升高,时空变化明显;年均降水量减少了5.08%,夏秋季减少最多,四川东部和西藏南端减少明显;年均径流量减少了4.83%,且主要发生在夏季。 关键词:区域气候模式;西线工程;草地退化 　　中图分类号:TV68;P461.4文献标识码:A文章编号:1672-1683(2010)05-0011-06 　　 　　Numerical Simulation of Climate Change Due to the Grassland Degradation in the Western Route of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project 　　ZHANG Ming-zhu??1,QIN Tian-ling2,3??,WANG Ling-he2,4??,HU Dong-lai??2,ZHANG Cheng??2 　　(1.Guangzhou Hydraulic Research Institute,Guangzhou 510220,China; 　　2.Water Resources Department,China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,Beijing 100038,China;3.Environmental Science and Engineering Department,Donghua University,Shanghai 201620,China; 　　4. School of Civil Hydraulic Engineering, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian 116023, China ) 　　 　　Abstract: On the basis of climate change, by regional climate model RegCM3 and simulation experiments through changing land-coverage types in the research area, the paper probed into the influences of grassland degradation on key climatic and hydrological factors in water source area of the western route as general circulation, surface temperature, precipitation and runoff, etc. The results indicated that the climate in water source area had a warming and drying trend. Concrete manifestations were as follows. In the 500hpa and 850hpa height field, large scale of negative value area arose. By contrast, that in east of research area increased. Influences of grassland degradation on temperature had temporal and spatial differences, and the annual average temperature rose. Annual average precipitation volume decreased by 5.08%, with maximum reduction seasonally in summer and autumn and geographically in eastern Sichuan and southern Tibet it decreased most. Annual average runoff decreased by 4.83%, with maximum reduction in summe