城市供热管网安全评价与故障管理研究-工商管理专业论文.docxVIP

ABSTRACT With the rapid development of Chinas urbanization process, people are increasingly demanding quality of life. Most parts of northern China have been fully realized central heating system. But the only large area of heating system coverage is not enough. It is very important to improve the stability of the heating system and to avoid perturbation. At current stage, there are still some concerns about the operation of heating network system. It is mainly reflected in the pipeline leak, pipe insulation and so on. Heating pipe network problems may arise with the property of randomness and abruptness which causes the difficulties for its maintenance. Having a good understanding of pipe network failure and emergency handling mechanism is a new subject for researchers and scholars. Firstly, there are two existing safety evaluation programs which focus on different aspects. The first program focuses on service quality of heating system. The second program focuses on both the service quality and heating network operational level. After applying the AHP method to these two programs, the first program is proved to be better than the second one. This result indicates that beforehand check is more important than the post-emergency treatment. AHP evaluation can be used for evaluation of future programs. Secondly, three different types of information are used to predict the leak point by applying Fisher discriminant method. These three different types of information are pipeline network completion time, the usage time and construction teams. Fisher linear discriminant function is obtained by using distance-based analysis. This function is cross validated. The overall accuracy rate is 88.15%. The new sample data is used to test this discriminant function. The results are the same. Fisher can be used to determine the actual pipe network leak point forecast. The prediction results are of significance for practical work. Finally, in the case of a real spill occurs, the prepar