资本的项目管制背景下我国资本跨境流动因素实证分析.docVIP

资本的项目管制背景下我国资本跨境流动因素实证分析 　　[摘 要] 资本跨境流动可以分为国际直接资本流动和国际间接资本流动，不同性质的资本流动影响因素不同。基于对国内外相关文献及变量分析，用3项移动平均法剔除季节因素，用ADF统计量进行平稳性检验，选择国际直接投资和国际间接投资作为因变量，消费者价格指数、固定资产投资增长率和采购经理指数作为解释变量，分别建立国际直接投资回归模型和国际间接投资回归模型，对两种性质的资本流动进行多元回归，对比分析PMI、CPI、FCL三个变量对两种资本流动的影响。得出国际直接资本受到PMI、FCL的影响，国际间接资本流动受到PMI、FCL和CPI三者的影响。因此，我国在制定宏观经济政策时，需要考虑国际证券资本和信贷资本变动对我国经济和资本市场的影响，稳定固定资产增长率以持续稳定吸引外资，同时应当出台相关政策，规范QFII和深港通、沪港通资本流动以及地下热钱的跨境流动，以此减少通货膨胀对国际证券投资和国际信贷变动的影响。 　　[关键词] 项目管制；资本流动；CPI；PMI；固定资产增长率 　　[中图分类号] F640 [文献标识码] A [文章编号] 1009-6043（2018）01-0080-04 　　Abstract： Cross-border flow of capital can be divided into international direct capital flow and international indirect capital flow， and different nature of capital flow has different influence factors. Based on the analysis of related literature at home and abroad， regression models of international direct investment and indirect investment are established by using three variables of moving average method to eliminate seasonal factors， using ADF statistics to test the stability， taking international direct investment and international indirect investment as the dependent variable and the consumer price index， the growth rate of fixed asset investment and purchasing managers index as explanatory variables. The two kinds of international capital flows are analyzed with the regression models to compare the influence of three variables， PMI， CPI， and FCL. It is concluded that the international direct capital is affected by PMI and FCL， and the international indirect capital flows are influenced by all of PMI， FCL and CPI. Therefore， when formulating macroeconomic policies， China needs to consider the impact of the change of international securities capital and credit capital on Chinas economy and the capital market， stabilize the growth rate of fixed assets to attract foreign investment steadily， and introduce relevant policies to regulate the QFII， capital flows of Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect and Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect and cross-bord