地方银根松紧、金融发展水平与贷款质量-会计学专业论文.docx

I I 摘 要 本文以我国城市商业银行为研究对象，分析了地方银根松紧状况和金融发展 水平对贷款质量的影响。我国地域辽阔，各地区经济发展不平衡，实施统一的货 币政策的同时各地区实际的银根松紧状况也存在着差异，同时，各地区的金融发 展水平也不平衡，两个因素都影响着城市商业银行的经营环境，从而影响其贷款 质量。 本文选取 2005 年至 2012 年我国城市商业银行数据和区域金融数据进行了实 证研究。统计结果表明我国城市商业银行正在逐渐发展壮大，然而经营规模和业 绩的差异性较大。各地区银根松紧状况的总体趋势与国家政策调整方向基本一 致，但实际银根松紧状况也存在着差异。本文分别分析了地方银根松紧状况和地 方金融发展水平对城市商业银行不良贷款率的影响，并进一步考虑了两个因素的 综合影响。本文也使用城市商业银行贷款迁徙率的数据对以上两个因素的影响进 行了补充分析。 本文得出的主要结论有：（1）短期内，地方银根宽松程度与城商行不良贷款 率成负相关关系，即地方银根越宽松，下一期城商行的不良贷款率越低。格兰杰 因果检验进一步验证了短期内银根宽松会引起不良贷款率的下降。（2）金融发展 水平对贷款质量有正向的溢出作用和负向的挤出作用。综合考虑地方金融发展水 平的各个方面，金融发展水平越高，不良贷款率越低。但金融发展过程中股票市 场的发展对城商行贷款的负向挤出效应一定程度上超过了其正向溢出效应。（3） 对城商行的贷款迁徙率的补充分析结果表明，地方金融发展水平与贷款迁徙率基 本成负相关关系，而银根松紧状况对不同类别贷款迁徙率的影响有所不同。总之， 实证研究的结果证明了本文的假设 1 和假设 2b，地方银根松紧状况和金融发展水 平会对银行的贷款质量产生影响。 关键词：地方银根松紧，金融发展，城商行，贷款质量 II II Abstract Focusing on the city commercial banks in China, this paper analyzes the impact of local monetary tightness and the level of financial development on the quality of the bank loan. China has a vast territory, and the levels of economic and social development of the provinces are different. Despite the HYPERLINK /w/unified/ unified policies, the differences of regional monetary tightness exit. The levels of financial development are also different in each province. Both the monetary tightness and the development of finance have an influence on the operation of commercial city bank in that area, then the quality of loan. This paper employs the empirical research methods, taking the data of city commercial banks and the financial information of the provinces from year 2005 to 2012 for study. Statistics show that Chinas city commercial banks are growing fast and the performance of the bank are of great diversity. The overall trend in regional monetary tightness conditions consistent with national policy reorientation, but the situations of monetary tightness are different. This paper analyzes the regional monetary tightness and the level of financial development on city commercial banks’ non-performing loan ratio of i