银行行业：2019年盈利增速预计维持平稳，维持“跑赢大市”评级.docxVIP

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2019-04-03 发布于北京
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银行行业：2019年盈利增速预计维持平稳，维持“跑赢大市”评级.docx

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我们预计中国银行业净利润增速将维持平稳;6)我们预计中国银行...因此,我们维持中国银行业2019年“跑赢大市”投资评级。

Sector Report: Banking Sector Richard Cao 曹柱行业报告：银行行业 (86755) 2397 6870 HYPERLINK mailto:caozhu013592@ caozhu013592@ 4 January 2019 Earnings Growth Expected to Remain Stable in 2019, Maintain Sector ReportEquity ResearchOutperform Sector Report Equity Research 2019年盈利增速预计维持平稳，维持“跑赢大市”评级 We expect YoY growth of the Chinese banking sectors balance of total loans and total assets to be 13.3% and 9.9% in 2019, respectively. As we project that Chinas liquidity conditions will be neutral and slightly loose, we expect NIM of the banking sector to remain relatively stable, reaching around 2.16% Rating: Outperform Maintained in 2019. We project the banking sectors net fee income to grow at a moderate pace in 2019. As we project asset quality to remain stable, pressure of provisioning for banks is expected not to rise. All things considered, we expect that YoY growth of the banking sectors net profit in 2018 and 2019 will be 6.0% and 6.2%, respectively. Equity Research ReportAs at 31 December 2018, the 2019 weighted average PER and PBR of mainland banks under our coverage stood at 5.2x and 0.7x, respectively. The current valuations are still low in our view. In 2019, we expect the following factors to support bank valuations: 1) we expect Chinas economy to grow steadily and economic structure to be optimized further; 2) we think Chinas economic risks will decrease further given the governments deleveraging and the stringent regulation; 3) the negative impact of stringent financial regulation on bank valuations is expected to mitigate; 4) we expect the cut in RRRs by the PBOC to strengthen profitability of banks; 5) we project the Chinese banking sectors net profit growth to remain stable; and 6) we expect the Chinese banking sectors asset quality to remain stable. Therefore, we maintain Outperform rating for the banking sector in 2019. Equity Research Report 我们预计中国银行业总贷款和总资产余额的同比增速 2019 年分别为 13.3%和 9.9%。由于我们预测中国流动性环境将中性偏松，我们预计 2019 年银行的净息差将维持稳定，达 2.16%左右。我们预计银行业净手续费收入