安徽省经济潜在增长率的测算与分析产业经济学专业论文.docxVIP

AbstractSince Abstract Since the global financial crisis in 2008，China’S economic growth is declining， growth miracle gradually disappear,the economy is fac访g downward pressure．Where is the future of our economy?What kind of development will our economy be is of the focus of discussion．Since the national economic development has entered new normal situation，Anhui Province economic development trend is also worthy of studying． Potential output means”the maximum possible output when the economy of all resources be fully utilized”．By measuring the potential growth rate of potential output call help US analyse the current health of the economy,predict future economic trends， it is an important tool for macroeconomic analysis，Can help to develop long。term regional economic policy and curb short-term fluctuations in the economy．Another important concept corresponding to potential output is output gap，which is the difference between actual and potential output between．If the output gap is negative， that is，the actual output level is below potential output level，the real economy is running below the potential level．It indicates that there may be low economic efficiency or elements idle situation in the development process．Transfer to the labor market,there will be involuntary unemployment，the real unemployment rate is higher than the natural rate of unemployment phenomenon，when the unemployment rate reaches a certain level，it is easy to trigger series of social problems．High unemployment is economic development Can not be tolerated．When the output gap is positive，that is，the actual output is above potential output,the real economy potential level．That means the resource may be overuesd during the development of the economy,which call affect the price of other factors and then transmitted to other products，the impact of short-term needs cannot increase long’term real output，but ultimately lead to inflationary and other consequences．Therefore，estimates and analysis of potent