金融脆弱性对国际资本流动“突然停止”的影响分析-应用经济学·金融学专业论文.docxVIP

万方数据 万方数据 摘 要 在金融全球化的背景下，脆弱的国内金融体系会波及国际资本市场，导致国际资本流 动发生剧烈波动甚至“突然停止”。本文基于国内外学者利用概率模型研究新兴经济体国 际资本流动“突然停止”问题的基础上，首次提出在概率模型中考虑金融脆弱性因素并引 入度量一国金融脆弱程度的指标。对金融脆弱性的指标构建上，本文考虑了金融机构的异 质性及不良资产的影响，从而使度量指标更为全面与准确地反映新兴经济体的以银行为主 导的金融体系质量。在对金融脆弱性的度量指标进行构建与改进后，本文着重探究国内金 融体系的脆弱性如何影响国际资本流动“突然停止”。 本文运用面板 Probit 模型考察了 1976—2012 年 22 个新兴经济体国际资本流动“突然 停止”的影响因素，着重探讨一国金融脆弱性对国际资本流动“突然停止”的影响。实证 研究结果表明：（1）以往研究所使用的债务美元化单一指标，并不能较全面地反映新兴经 济体的金融体系脆弱度；（2）一国的金融脆弱性对国际资本流动“突然停止”具有显著的 负影响；（3）金融开放会放大一国的金融脆弱程度，进一步提高国际资本流动“突然停止” 的发生概率。 关键词 突然停止，金融脆弱性，金融开放 I Abstract With the development of financial globalization, the international capital market would face shocks stemming from domestic financial fragility, which may lead to the volatility of capital and “Sudden Stops”. It is the first time for us to take financial fragility into account when we use probabilistic model to assess the factors of the “Sudden Stops” of international capital flows. We construct a more comprehensive index to measure financial fragility in emerging markets by thinking over the non-performing assets. After measuring this index, we try to make it clear how financial fragility affects the “Sudden Stops” of international capital flows. By using a broad sample of emerging markets, this article assesses the impact of financial fragility on the “Sudden Stops” of international capital flows. This article proves that the index we usually used is not a precise one to measure financial fragility. We find that the fragility in financial system significantly influences the occurrence of the “Sudden Stops”. The financial opening will enlarge the degree of financial fragility if financial system becomes more vulnerable, which would trigger the volatility of economy and raise the probability of “Sudden Stops”. Key Words Sudden Stops, Financial Fragility, Financial Opening II 目 录 HYPERLINK \l _bookmark0 摘 要...............................................................................................................................................