美国农产品期货市场对我国农产品现货市场影响的实证分析房地产金融专业毕业论文.docxVIP

PAGE PAGE VI 的概念界定以及期货市场的发展和功能，并在介绍美国期货市场与现货市场关系以及 我国期货市场与现货市场关系的基础上分析美国农产品期货市场与我国农产品现货 市场可能存在的联动效应，即美国农产品期货市场可能通过两种途径影响我国农产品 现货市场，其一，通过对我国进出口的影响直接影响我国现货市场，其二，通过我国 期货市场间接影响我国现货市场。 在得出理论框架后，分别用典型相关分析方法和 GARCH 模型对美国大豆期货 市场影响我国大豆现货市场的两种途径进行实证分析，得出结论： 我国大豆进口主要受芝加哥大豆期货合约持仓量和开盘价影响，我国大豆出口 量受芝加哥大豆期货市场的影响不显著。芝加哥大豆期货价格对我国大豆期货价格有 很好的引导作用，而我国期货现货市场是互相引导的，这也意味着我国大豆现货市场 通过我国期货市场间接受美国期货市场影响。 文章最后根据前文的理论与实证分析结果，针对美国农产品期货市场对我国农 产品现货市场的两种影响机制，分别对我国期货市场和现货市场提出政策建议。 关键词：大豆 现货市场 期货市场 影响机制 ABSTRACT In recent years, global agricultural products prices volatile has attracted attention of all countries in the world 。Fluctuations in the price of agricultural products not only greatly, long duration, but also relates to the varieties of agricultural products, especially the volatility in food prices, resulting in a serious impact on the worlds agricultural economy. With advanced economic development and expanding of opening policy, many of our agricultural products are increasingly dependent on international markets, upgrading the extent of import reliance .. The selection of soybean has very strong representation. Soybean is one of Chinas major crops, whose sown area ranks first among three major oil crops. The significance of soybean production is not only shown as its ripple effect in national economy, which can’t be underestimated; but also displayed as the major source of vegetable protein and edible oil in human diet.According to the statistics released by General Administration of Customs, Chinas soybean import dependence was 80% in 2012, while the U.S. was our largest supplier. The agricultural product futures market and spot market are complementary . Full-blown agricultural products spot market is the prerequisite for the development of the agricultural product futures market, and the development of agricultural product spot market needs regulation and guidance of agricultural product futures market . After 20 years lessons of the foreign advanced mode, Chinas futures