国内外溃坝风险后果的研究进展及展望-水工建筑物论文-水利工程论文-水利论文.docx

国内外溃坝风险后果的研究进展及展望-水工建筑物论文-水利工程论文-水利论文 ——文章均为WORD文档，下载后可直接编辑使用亦可打印—— 　　摘 要：　溃坝风险后果分析是水库大坝风险评估的重要内容。影响溃坝风险后果的因素多，作用机理复杂，导致不同研究方法的分析结果与实际后果之间均存在较大差异。从风险后果的内涵出发，建议风险后果可分为生命损失、经济损失和环境影响3个基础类别；分析国外研究成果与应用情况，明确从基于历史资料构建经验模型到基于致灾机理构建物理模型的发展趋势；分析中国溃坝风险后果评估现状，明确结合致灾机理的经验模型分析、半定量评价和区域损失叠加计算三类研究方法在准确性和实用性方面的优点与不足；提出应从加强致灾机理分析、注重准确性与实用性的结合、重视非工程措施的重要作用和在应用中不断改进等4个方面采取措施，提高风险后果研究水平和实际应用效果。 　　关键词：　溃坝; 风险评估; 风险后果; 损失; 影响; 　　Abstract：　Risk consequences analysis of dam breach is fundamental to risk assessment of reservoir dams. Multiple influencing factors and complex mechanisms lead to great differences between the analysis results of different research methods and the actual consequences. It is suggested that risk consequences can be divided into three basic categories: loss of life, economic loss and environmental impact, based on their definitions. According to the analysis of research achievements and applications abroad, the development trend that physical model based on disaster-causing mechanism takes place of empirical model based on historical data is clarified. Based on the analysis of research status of dam breach risk consequences assessment in China, both advantages and disadvantages of three main research methods, i.e. analysis based on empirical model and disaster-causing mechanism, semi-quantitative evaluation and superposition calculation of regional losses, are clarified in terms of accuracy and practicability. It is proposed that the risk consequences research and practical application can be improved in four aspects, i.e., strengthening the analysis of disaster-causing mechanism, paying attention to the combination of accuracy and practicability, emphasizing the important roles of non-engineering measures and improving the research constantly during application. 　　Keyword：　dam breach; risk assessment; risk consequence; loss; impact; 　　水库大坝产生防洪、供水、灌溉、发电和旅游等多种社会及经济效益，但其拦蓄洪水产生的巨大势能对下游人民群众生命财产安全也带来了很大威胁。中国自1954年有较系统的溃坝记录以来，到2014年的61年间共发生水库溃坝3529座，年均溃坝57