人口老龄化对城市消费结构的影响研究.docVIP

PAGE PAGE 27 人口老龄化对城市消费结构的影响研究——以杭州市为例 摘要：人口老龄化问题已成为当今世界各国都在关注和解决的重点问题。本文利用杭州市统计年鉴资料，全面分析了杭州市人口老龄化和消费结构的现状，发现杭州市老龄化具有老龄化超前、老年人口规模扩大、老龄化高龄发展等特点，消费结构呈现出恩格尔系数下降、交通和通信支出比重提高、各类消费品支出总额逐年增加等发展态势。在此基础之上，通过灰色关联度分析法实证研究了杭州市人口老龄化对对消费结构影响。研究发现，杭州市人口老龄化与衣着类、居住、家庭设备用品及服务、交通和通信的关联度相对较高，而与杂项商品服务、食品类、教育文化娱乐服务、医疗保健的关联度相对较低。根据实证结果，本文从养老保障制度、老年人口劳动资源、老年医疗保障制度、老年消费市场和产业结构五个方面提出了相关的对策，用以杭州市应对人口老龄化问题，优化消费结构。 关键词：人口老龄化消费结构灰色关联度分析法 Impact of population aging on the consumption structure - Taking Hangzhou for example Abstract: The problem of population aging has become the focus of attention and resolution in the world. Based on statistical yearbook data of Hangzhou, this paper comprehensively analyzes the present situation of an aging population and consumption structure of Hangzhou, found in Hangzhou aging ahead, aging population scale, characteristics of aging - year development, the consumption structure presents the Engel coefficient decreased proportion, transportation and communication costs increase and development of all kinds of consumer spending increases year by year. On this basis, through the gray relational analysis method, the empirical study of Hangzhous population aging on the consumption structure. The study found that the population aging and clothing, housing, household appliances and services, transportation and communication in Hangzhou is relatively high, while the association of miscellaneous goods, food, education and entertainment services, health care is relatively low. According to the empirical results, this paper puts forward the relevant countermeasures from five aspects: the old-age security system, the elderly population labor resources, the elderly medical security system, the old consumer market and the industrial structure, and to optimize the consumption structure in Hangzhou city. Keywords: Aging population Consumption structure Grey relational analysis method 一、绪论 （一）研究背景 经济的发展以及科学技术的进步，医疗卫生条件逐步得到改善，使得人口平均寿命延长。同时伴随生育率的下降，人口老龄化进程不断加快，人口老龄化问题已经发展成为全