中国股市的长期投资价值和投资策略.docVIP

PAGE PAGE 21 中国股市的长期投资价值和投资策略 摘要：中国股市从1990年12月之初开始建立，至今已有25年历史，期间经历了数次大起大落，在2007年达到最高的6124.06点，最终因为泡沫过大，在极短时间内跌至1664点。现如今，从2014年下半年开始，随着政府一系列改革措施，A股行情慢慢转变，投资热情又一次高涨，交易量持续上涨，截止2015年4月，上证指数已经达到了4000点高位。那么未来中国股票市场又会何去何从呢？本文主要对国家政策导向、中国经济发展状况、中国股市发展历史经验和投资者信心等宏观因素分来判断中国股市的长期投资价值。并且从上市公司的基本面出发，运用计量模型，使用EVIEWS软件对A股近5年的财务指标与股价进行实证分析来研究其内在价值和投资超额收益，检验价值投资策略在现阶段中国股市的实用性。从而结合以上两方面综合探究中国股市的长期投资价值，并给出相关投资意见。 关键词：宏观经济分析；基本面分析；长期投资价值；价值投资策略 The long-term investment value of Chinas stock market and investment strategy Abstract: Chinas stock market since the beginning of December 1990 establishing, so far has more than 25 years, through a number of ups and downs, peaking at 6124.06 in 2007, eventually because foam is too large, fell to 1664 points in a very short time. Now, starting from the second half of 2014 ，with a series of reform measures of the government, a stock market is slowly transforming investment enthusiasm high once again, trading volumes continued to rise, by April 2015, the Shanghai index has reached 4,000 points. Then the future Chinese stock market will decide on what path to follow? This part stress on the analysis of the national policy orientation，the development of Chinas economic development, the historical experience of Chinas stock markets and investor confidence to judge the long-term investment value of Chinas stock market. And proceeds from the fundamentals of listed companies，using econometric models with EVIEWS software to research the intrinsic value and returns an empirical by analysising on the nearly 5 years of financial indicators and stock price, testing whether the value of investment have practical value in present chinas stock market. According to the above two aspects to explore Chinas long-term investment value，and give the relevant investment advice. Keywords: macro economic analysis; fundamental analysis; long-term investment value; Value investment strategy 一、引言 中国股市从1990年12月之初，至今已有25年历史，期间经历了数次大起大落，在2007年达到最高的6124.06点，最终因为泡沫过大，一路从6