采用热泵的经济决定因素 The Economic Determinants of Heat Pump Adoption.docxVIP

NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES THE ECONOMIC DETERMINANTS OF HEAT PUMP ADOPTION Lucas W. Davis Working Paper 31344 /papers/w31344 NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138 June 2023 This paper was presented at the NBER Environmental and Energy Policy and the Economy Conference, May 25, 2023 at the National Press Club in Washington, DC, and will be included in a conference volume published by the University of Chicago Press. I am thankful to Josh Blonz, Tatyana Deryugina, Justin Kirkpatrick, Matthew Kotchen, Catherine Wolfram, and conference participants for helpful feedback. I do not have any financial relationships that relate to this research. The analysis relies entirely on publicly-available data and all data and code will be posted on my website upon completion of the project. The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research. NBER working papers are circulated for discussion and comment purposes. They have not been peer-reviewed or been subject to the review by the NBER Board of Directors that accompanies official NBER publications. ? 2023 by Lucas W. Davis. All rights reserved. Short sections of text, not to exceed two paragraphs, may be quoted without explicit permission provided that full credit, including ? notice, is given to the source. The Economic Determinants of Heat Pump Adoption Lucas W. Davis NBER Working Paper No. 31344 June 2023 JEL No. H23,L51,Q41,Q42,Q48,Q54 ABSTRACT One concern with subsidies for low-carbon technologies is that they tend to go predominantly to high-income households. Previous research has shown, for example, that the top income quintile receives 60% of subsidies for rooftop solar and 90% of subsidies for electric vehicles. This paper finds that heat pumps are an important exception. Using newly available U.S. nationally representative data, the paper finds that there is remarkably littl