高盛-中国：过去一年的经验教训.pdfVIP

【价值目录】网整理：

EconomicsResearch

6February2026|10:05PMHKT

CHINA

MATTERS

LessonsLearnedfromtheLastYear

WerelectonthemacrodataandpolicieswehavefollowedcloselyoverthepastHuiShan

+852-2978-6634|hui.shan@

yearanddrawivelessonsinthisnote.GoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.

nFirst,dataqualityissuesinsomeoicialserieshavebecomemoresigniicant,as

seeninthequarter-endpatternoftheNBSManufacturingPMIandthe

double-digitdeclinesinixedassetinvestment(FAI).

nSecond,thedivergenceacrossindicatorsandsectorsintheChineseeconomyhas

grownmorepronounced,withexportvaluerising6.6%yoywhilepropertyFAI

dropped37%yoyinDecember.Webelievethisisaresultofpolicydesign,andit

islikelytopersist.

nThird,thegovernment’spushfortechnologyandinnovationisyieldingresults,

whilethedragfromthepropertymarketontheeconomymayhavepeaked.

nFourth,policymakershavebeenconservativeinimplementingiscalstimulusto

ofsetweakprivatedemand.Wethinkthisconservativestanceislinkedtothe

elevatedgovernmentdebt-to-GDPratioandheightenedgeopolitical

uncertainties.

nFifth,weindthathighUStarifsdidmoderateChina’sexportgrowthfromApril

throughOctoberlastyeardespitethefactthatoverall