中国外债规模适度性的研究.pdfVIP

摘 要 在现代开放经济中,任何一个国家想完全依靠自己的力量去完成现代 化建设使命几乎是不可能的。从国际债务的实践来看，外债对经济的发展 的影响是一把双刃剑，外债规模过大，会影响一国偿债能力和国际收支平 衡；外债规模过小，又不足以填补经济发展的资本缺口，只有适度的外债 规模，才可以增加就业，促进一国经济发展。 借用外债作为加速国内资本形成规模及相应速度、克服资本瓶颈约 束、促进经济发展的手段，成为当代大多数发展中国家采用的经济发展战 略，但国际债务危机的教训又告诉我们，外债使用不当，不仅加重一国的 债务负担，影响国际收支平衡，阻碍经济发展，甚至会危及一国的经济主 权。因此需要控制外债的适度规模，防范债务危机的发生。 本文首先从外债的正面效应和负面效应分别对外债对经济的影响做 出阐述，同时对发挥外债正面效应的条件做出说明，强调外债规模管理的 必要性；其次从我国外债的发展史和现状来分析我国外债存在的问题,通 过设计适度外债规模的指标体系和动态计算方法，结合我国外债规模的现 状，运用各类指标对其进行研究，同时分析了金融一体化条件下影响我国 适度外债规模的问题和不确定因素，由此提出控制我国外债水平的审慎建 议，并就新形势下如何加强外债管理提出政策建议。 主题词：外债规模；外债管理；适度外债规模 IV ABSTRACT In the modern opening economic age, it is impossible for any countries can complete the modernization without external debt. From the fulfillment of the international obligation ；we know the foreign loan has two effects to the influence of the economic development. Foreign loan scale over great, will damage the ability of national debt repayment and the international balance. Foreign loan scale over small is not enough to fill up the capital gap for economy development. Only have the temperate foreign loan scale, can just increase the employment ， and promote the national economy development. Utilizing foreign debt as an effective to accelerate the accumulation of the domestic capital and promote a nations development is now being taken bay most developing countries as an important economic strategy ,but lessons of debt crisis also let us know the grave consequences of the improper use of foreign debt, especially under the environment of globalization in which the instability of the international interest rate, exchange rate and market price are being boost up