MODELING H1N1 FLU EPIDEMIC WITH CONTACT TRACING AND QUARANTINE.pdfVIP

InternationalJournalcfBiomathemati(s W or1dScientific Vo1．5，No,．5(September2012)1250038(19pages) ．．．．． ．．．． ． ． ． ． ． ． ． ．．． ．．．．． ．．．．． ．．．．． ． ． ． ． ． ． ． ． ． ． ．．．．． ． ．— — wwww0rldscientificcom ⑥ WorldScientificPublishingCompany DOI：10．1142／S1793524511O018O5 M oDELIN G H 1N 1FLU EPIDEM IC W ITH CoNTACT TRACING AND QUARANTINE MANJUAGARV L andARCHANA S．BHADAURIAf DepartmentofMathematics Astronomy L,ueknow niversity Lucknow．．226007．Ut,tarPradesh．India m r上礼 ，f上ak叵)yahoo．corn tarchanasingh93~yahoo．c0．in Received 31July 2010 Accepted 10June2011 Published 17Apri12012 A nonlinearmathematicalmodeli：sproposed and analyzed to ~tudy the dynamicscf 2009 H1N1flu epidemic in a homogeneouspopulation with constant immigration cf suseeptibles．Tbeefrectcfcontacttracingandquarantine(isolation1strategiesinreduc-． ing thespread ofHIN1ufl isincorporated．Tbe modelmonitorsthe dynamicsof five sub—populations(classes)，namelysusceptiblewithhighinfectionrisk，susceptiblewtih reduction ofinfE．tionrisk，info~ctive，quarantined andrecovered individuals．Themodel analysisjnicludesthedeterminationcfequilibrium pointsandcarryingouttheirstability analysisinterm softhethresholdparameterR0．M ro eover．thenumericallsimulationof theproposedmodel isalsoperformedbyusingfourthorderRunge-Kuttamethodalong withthesensitivityanalysisof theendemicequilibrium point．Theanalysisandnumerb． calsimulationresu