Application of random walk model to fit temperature in 46 gamma world cities from 1901 to 1998英文文献资料.docVIP

Vol.2, No.12, 1425-1431 (2010) Natural Science doi:10.4236/ns.2010.212174 Application of random walk model to fit temperature in 46 gamma world cities from 1901 to 1998 Shaomin Yan , Guang Wu 1 1,2* 1 State Key Laboratory of Non-food Biomass Enzyme Technology, National Engineering Research Center for Non-food Biorefinery, Guangxi Key Laboratory of Biorefinery, Guangxi Academy of Sciences, Nanning, China DreamSciTech Consulting, Shenzhen, China; Corresponding Author: hongguanglishibahao@ 2 * Received 2 October 2010; revised 3 November 2010; accepted 6 November 2010. ABSTRACT single coin: although theoretically each side of coin has 0.5 chances to be up or down, the tossing of coin se- quentially results in either head up or tail up for several times continuously rather than each tossing generates alternative result. The addition of sequentially tossed results would be a random walk [6]. Computationally each tossing of coin can be done with the generation of random numbers, which can be classified as 1 or –1 if a random number is larger or smaller than its previous one. As the generation of random numbers is through the Monte-Carlo simulation with different seeds, thus the random walk is a model with its own model parameter, seed. Therefore, we can consider the random walk model as alternative model to fit the temperature because it can produce a really fluctuated curve. Following that, we applied the random walk model to fit the global tem- perature anomaly, CRUTEM3, and got a very encourag- ing result [7]. Since then, an intensive literature search indicates that Gordon noticed the similarity between global warming and random walk in 1991 [8]. Likely, the random walk could provide an alternative model to describe the temperature, however, two ques- tions raised here are whether the random walk model can be applied only to the global