基于面板随机效应模型确定鲁北三地棉花干旱指数保险理赔金额.pdfVIP

中国农业气象(Chinese Joumal of Agrometeorology) 2014 年 doi: 10. 3969Ij. iss且 1α)() -6362. 2014. 03. 仪涉 王倩，曹杰，即埠，等.基于面板随机效应模型确定鲁北三地棉花干旱指数保险理黯金额[J]. 中国农业气象，却14，35(3):细-298 基于面板随机效应模型确定鲁北三地棉花干旱指数保险理赔金额. 王倩，曹杰，周兆基，张眉 (南京信息工程大学，南京 21侧的 摘要:利用鲁北地区滨州市、德州市和聊城市 1989 - 2011 年棉花单产资料和各生育期降水量资料，运用三次多 项式拟合趋势产量，进而分离气象产量，计算气象灾害造成的棉花减产率，定义减产且干旱的年份(共33 个)为 有效样本。根据棉花各生育期的降水量和需水量计算缺水量，并设定棉花全生青期的于旱指数。构建面板随 机效应模型，定量分析干旱指数(DI) 与因干旱造成减产率(DYLR) 的关系，即 DYLR =0. 侧3766D1。结果表 明，当鲁北三地 DI 9 1. 08mm 时，单位理赔金额为0; 当 DI ;;æ: 91. 08mm 时，启动赔付，单位理赔金额为保险金额 与因干旱造成减产率的乘积。因此干旱指数保险赔付触发值为91. 08mm，鲁北三地 33 个有效样本中有 15 个 样本达到赔付标准。棉花干旱指数保险理赔金额的确定，可避免因信息不对称产生的市场失灵问题，降低经营 成本，提高理赔效率，最大程度调动农民投保防灾的积极性。 关键词:棉花;减产率;干旱指数;农业保险;理赔金额 Indemnity Amount Determinatioo for Cotω10 Drought Index Insurance in Northem Shaodoog Province Bωed 00 Panel Random EtTect Model WANG Qian ,CAO Jie ,ZHOU Zhao世，ZHANG Mei (Nanjing University of Infonnation Science Technology ,Nanjing 21α144 ， China) AIM由8cl:B皿ed on cotton yield data and precipitation data at each growth stage from 1989 to 2011 in Binzhou ,Dezhou and Liaocheng in northem Shandong province ，回nd yield w.幽 fitted by using cubic polynomial equation , then meteorological yield w田 extracted ， decompo甜d ， yield reduction rate of cotton due to meteorological disaster w幽 calculated ,33 effective samples were defined. Water shortage w.幽 calculated according to precipitation and water demand at each growth stage of cotton ,and w幽 defined as drought index during whole growth seaωn. 咀le relationship between drought index (DI) and yield 时uction 附due to 也ought w幽 analyzed quantitatively by establishing 阳el random effect model ,namely DYLR = O.α)()3766DI. 币le results showed that the w由 indemnity amount w.脑 o when DI 91.侃mm in northem Shandong