中国农村商业发展区域差异与变动趋势分析.docVIP

中国农村商业发展的区域差异与变动趋势分析 　　[摘要]文章运用GINI系数、Theil系数、对数离差均值系数对1983～2006年中国农村商业发展的各地带间差异、省际差异进行度量,并在此基础上运用R/S分析方法对区域农村商业发展差异性的未来变动趋势进行了分析。结果表明:中国农村商业发展的区域差异主要表现为组内差异。但Hurst指数表明,不管是组内差异还是组间差异,未来的差异性还要扩大;农村商业发展水平较低的省际差异最明显,其次是中等发展水平的省际差异,最后是高发展水平的省际差异。与此同时,Hurst指数显示:中部地带内农村商业发展的省际差异正在逐步缩小。 　　[关键词]农村商业发展;区域差异;变动趋势;GINI系数;对数离差均值系数;Theil系数;Hurst指数 　　[中图分类号][F722.2][文献标识码][A][文章编号][1002-736X(2010)06-0106-05] 　　[作者简介]杨军(1975-),男,江西赣州人,仲恺农业工程学院经济与管理学院讲师,经济学硕士,研究方向:区域经济、农业经济。 　　 　　The Regional Disparities of Rural Commerce Development in China 　　and Its Tendency 　　Yang Jun 　　(College of Economics and Management, Zhongkai University of Agriculture and Engineering, Guangzhou, Guangdong 510225) 　　 　　Abstract: By using GINI coefficient, Theil coefficient and the coefficient of logarithmic deviation mean, this paper measures the disparities of the development of the rural commerce from 1983 to 2006. And on the base of this measure, this paper also analyzes the future tendency of the regional disparities of the development of the rural commerce by the use of R/S, its result shows that: the disparities in the group is the main regional one as for the development of the rural commerce in China, however, not only the Group one but the internal group one all shows the future expand; the disparities between the provinces in the areas of lower level is the greatest, followed by the medium level ones, and the last is the high level ones; At the same time, Hurst index indicates that the disparities between the provinces in the central area are gradually narrowing. 　　Key words: rural commercial development; regional disparities; change tendency; GINI coefficient; the index of logarithmic deviation mean; Theil coefficient; Hurst index 　　 　　一、引言 　　 　　由于中国农村居民收入水平的区域差异性,中国农村商业发展态势呈现出较明显的区域差异。再加上,改革开放以后,各地区政府在市场发育、市场化机制的建设中也存在先后不一致和不平衡的状态(陈秀山、徐瑛,2004)。①具体表现为:东部沿海发达省份率先根据中央政府的规划要求进行了一系列的市场化改革,并且充分利用拥有的区位优势,社会主义市场体系逐步建立和成型,农村市场化的触角不断向广大农村渗透,直接或间接地导致了东部沿海发达省份的农村市场化程度不断提高,农村商业获得了优良的发展环境,直